Dzanan Musa - A Complete Analysis
- AlexS
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Dzanan Musa - A Complete Analysis
After completing my analysis of Christ Koumadje and the defensive profiles of CSL bigs as a whole (viewtopic.php?f=19&t=13699), I wanted to do more. I found using the statistics available in game to be an extremely valuable tool for analyzing current CSL bigs and establishing trends that I would like to use going forwards. My next project would be looking at a complete statistical breakdown of CSL point guard's.
My motivation for analyzing point guard's next arises from my midseason acquisition of Dzanan Musa from the Sacramento Kings. It appeared throughout the season that he was playing quite well (except against New Orleans in the playoffs): lots of assists, good scoring, good rebounding, etc. But I wanted to dig deeper and see if his underlying statistics matched what seemed like a really good season running the show in Minnesota.
The process was very similar to my Center analysis. I determined that PG's with >800 minutes would qualify - as I wanted a slight larger pool of players (62 total) and that is roughly ~20% of a season's available minutes at PG which seemed like a logical cut off point. I then gathered the raw data, and categorized them into 4 categories : Point Guard Skills, Shooting, Do Shit, and Defense Advanced -I'll explain each category with each graph of the data. As I have done previously my goal was to determine how well Musa performed at each stat in comparison to the rest of the league. As 6.6 apg looks great, but is that just because he played more minutes, had more touches, etc.? So each statistic is rated for Musa's percentile rank compared to the other PG's of the CSL - 50th percentile means he's average, 90th percentile means he's better than 90% of the other PG's at that stat and so on.
The Results
Stats used are : Touches/36 min ; Assist/Touch ; AST % (an estimated percentage of teammate field goals a player assisted while the player is on the court), TO/TCH, and TO%.
Musa shows an incredible ability to assist teammates in getting baskets when he's on the floor, despite having a relatively average # of touches while on the court. What I love about Musa is that despite assisting at a really high %, he doesn't really turn the ball over. In other words he's not CSL Jason Williams with alot of fancy assists but alot of TO's too. All around you could make the case that Musa is in the elite tier of CSL point guards when it comes to "Point Guard Skills".
Stats used are : USG % (an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while he was on the floor - FGA, FTA, and TO's ; 0-3FGA rate, 0-3 %, 3PA rate, 3PA/36, 3p%, FTA/36, FT%, TS% (measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws).
When looking at shooting I largely wanted to look at how players are doing at getting the most efficient shots and in my opinion the most important shots : Rim attempts, 3PA, and FTA while adding the context of USG% and TS%. As you can see, Musa doesn't get to the rim or shoot 3's with a high frequency when compared to his peers, and really struggled shooting at the rim this season (much lower than his previous seasons - I will need to continue to monitor this decline). He got to the FT line quite a bit (and shot poorly) and shot pretty well from 3. Musa carries a slightly above average USG% and with his below average 3PA and 0-3 rate you can determine that he shoots a fair # of shots from midrange which will continue to be worked on through preference work. Of note on the 0-3%, the numbers are pretty skewed and take them with a grain of salt as a large # of backup PGs who only attempted ~50< shots at the rim technically qualified, and since they were all likely wide open layups shot an insane %.
Stats used are : ORB%, DRB%, STL%, BLK% - all stats are estimates of a players # of X while he is on the floor.
When on the floor Musa "does shit" that contributes to the team. He uses his height to contribute with blocks and rebounds (love this from a PG). He is well below average at getting steals which could be a result of defensive system deployed. Good comparisons to players who don't "do shit" besides PG stuff when on the floor are Markus Howard and Ky Bowman.
Stats used are : Drives faced/36 min, drive stop %, Shots faced/36 min, Points Allowed / Shot Faced, and personal fouls/36 min.
Likely due to defensive system deployed, Musa does not carry a heavy defensive workload as you can see he faces fewer shots and drives than the average PG. He's slightly below average at stopping drives, but really really excels at limiting his opponents from making baskets while not fouling. Which I am happy with - if he fails at stopping a drive that player will be driving right into Koumadje who is elite at blocking shots and limiting baskets.
That's the analysis, what does everyone think? Again I really enjoyed completing this as I think I really understand Musa better as a player and how I want to improve his game for future seasons and maximize the team around him to accentuate his skills. Is there any other player cards that people would like to see?
My motivation for analyzing point guard's next arises from my midseason acquisition of Dzanan Musa from the Sacramento Kings. It appeared throughout the season that he was playing quite well (except against New Orleans in the playoffs): lots of assists, good scoring, good rebounding, etc. But I wanted to dig deeper and see if his underlying statistics matched what seemed like a really good season running the show in Minnesota.
The process was very similar to my Center analysis. I determined that PG's with >800 minutes would qualify - as I wanted a slight larger pool of players (62 total) and that is roughly ~20% of a season's available minutes at PG which seemed like a logical cut off point. I then gathered the raw data, and categorized them into 4 categories : Point Guard Skills, Shooting, Do Shit, and Defense Advanced -I'll explain each category with each graph of the data. As I have done previously my goal was to determine how well Musa performed at each stat in comparison to the rest of the league. As 6.6 apg looks great, but is that just because he played more minutes, had more touches, etc.? So each statistic is rated for Musa's percentile rank compared to the other PG's of the CSL - 50th percentile means he's average, 90th percentile means he's better than 90% of the other PG's at that stat and so on.
The Results
Stats used are : Touches/36 min ; Assist/Touch ; AST % (an estimated percentage of teammate field goals a player assisted while the player is on the court), TO/TCH, and TO%.
Musa shows an incredible ability to assist teammates in getting baskets when he's on the floor, despite having a relatively average # of touches while on the court. What I love about Musa is that despite assisting at a really high %, he doesn't really turn the ball over. In other words he's not CSL Jason Williams with alot of fancy assists but alot of TO's too. All around you could make the case that Musa is in the elite tier of CSL point guards when it comes to "Point Guard Skills".
Stats used are : USG % (an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while he was on the floor - FGA, FTA, and TO's ; 0-3FGA rate, 0-3 %, 3PA rate, 3PA/36, 3p%, FTA/36, FT%, TS% (measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws).
When looking at shooting I largely wanted to look at how players are doing at getting the most efficient shots and in my opinion the most important shots : Rim attempts, 3PA, and FTA while adding the context of USG% and TS%. As you can see, Musa doesn't get to the rim or shoot 3's with a high frequency when compared to his peers, and really struggled shooting at the rim this season (much lower than his previous seasons - I will need to continue to monitor this decline). He got to the FT line quite a bit (and shot poorly) and shot pretty well from 3. Musa carries a slightly above average USG% and with his below average 3PA and 0-3 rate you can determine that he shoots a fair # of shots from midrange which will continue to be worked on through preference work. Of note on the 0-3%, the numbers are pretty skewed and take them with a grain of salt as a large # of backup PGs who only attempted ~50< shots at the rim technically qualified, and since they were all likely wide open layups shot an insane %.
Stats used are : ORB%, DRB%, STL%, BLK% - all stats are estimates of a players # of X while he is on the floor.
When on the floor Musa "does shit" that contributes to the team. He uses his height to contribute with blocks and rebounds (love this from a PG). He is well below average at getting steals which could be a result of defensive system deployed. Good comparisons to players who don't "do shit" besides PG stuff when on the floor are Markus Howard and Ky Bowman.
Stats used are : Drives faced/36 min, drive stop %, Shots faced/36 min, Points Allowed / Shot Faced, and personal fouls/36 min.
Likely due to defensive system deployed, Musa does not carry a heavy defensive workload as you can see he faces fewer shots and drives than the average PG. He's slightly below average at stopping drives, but really really excels at limiting his opponents from making baskets while not fouling. Which I am happy with - if he fails at stopping a drive that player will be driving right into Koumadje who is elite at blocking shots and limiting baskets.
That's the analysis, what does everyone think? Again I really enjoyed completing this as I think I really understand Musa better as a player and how I want to improve his game for future seasons and maximize the team around him to accentuate his skills. Is there any other player cards that people would like to see?
- Marcos_Beck
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Re: Dzanan Musa - A Complete Analysis
I really want to see Lonzo’s analysis, specially point guard and defensive analysis
I’ll read this tomorrow better but looking at graphics only Muza seems to be one of the most complete players in the league. I like his game a lot!
I’ll read this tomorrow better but looking at graphics only Muza seems to be one of the most complete players in the league. I like his game a lot!
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Re: Dzanan Musa - A Complete Analysis
Guy was always a very good player. Just not a lot of teams identified that he was being stifled by Porters usage.
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- hardenwithnod
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Re: Dzanan Musa - A Complete Analysis
Good stuff once again, I think this tool you developed is huge for evaluating players. I would love to see how Jordan McLaughlin look.
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Re: Dzanan Musa - A Complete Analysis
I'd love to see you create a team profile with shooting percentiles, or an individual player's ratings and how they benefit their teams[relative to their replacement]. This stuff is both huge for you and the league, I'd love to learn how you extracted the data.
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- blackice
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Re: Dzanan Musa - A Complete Analysis
One of the best articles of this season, great work here Alex.
Ball is Life.
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Re: Dzanan Musa - A Complete Analysis
Approved
Musa really does do shit. Is he one of the best PGs at "doing shit"?
Musa really does do shit. Is he one of the best PGs at "doing shit"?
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Re: Dzanan Musa - A Complete Analysis
Thanks everyone!
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Re: Dzanan Musa - A Complete Analysis
I like the idea of comparing a player to their replacement - an obvious one that really stuck out was Doncic and Arcidiacono : best player in the league and one of the worst. Potential issue I could see dealing with is having backups that have a large enough sample size to have a good comparison. Extracting data was just determining a qualifying # of minutes, then copying the data from each player page. Tedious, but not so bad when it's just ~60 players.Ramcus wrote: ↑Wed May 25, 2022 2:29 pm I'd love to see you create a team profile with shooting percentiles, or an individual player's ratings and how they benefit their teams[relative to their replacement]. This stuff is both huge for you and the league, I'd love to learn how you extracted the data.
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Re: Dzanan Musa - A Complete Analysis
Lonzo Ball
Elite PG skills and ball stealer, below average efficiency shooting. As a Timberwolves fan, he seems like a young Ricky Rubio?
Elite PG skills and ball stealer, below average efficiency shooting. As a Timberwolves fan, he seems like a young Ricky Rubio?
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Re: Dzanan Musa - A Complete Analysis
Jordan McLaughlinhardenwithnod wrote: ↑Wed May 25, 2022 1:00 pm Good stuff once again, I think this tool you developed is huge for evaluating players. I would love to see how Jordan McLaughlin look.
Good point guard skills, elite elite slasher, bad defender but gets a few steals.
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- Marcos_Beck
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Re: Dzanan Musa - A Complete Analysis
Good comparison. Too bad Ricky didnt develop into the playmaker he could've been, because at a young age he was really special. I thought he was gonna become the best PG in the league. He's still a pretty good PG, but didn't live up to expectations.
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Re: Dzanan Musa - A Complete Analysis
If we're doing point guards, i'd love to see a Fultz card if you ever get the chance. Thanks!
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Re: Dzanan Musa - A Complete Analysis
Awesome work Alex!
I will get back to you if I have a player worth looking at
I will get back to you if I have a player worth looking at
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Re: Dzanan Musa - A Complete Analysis
Depaula for point guards please.
This could make or break my team this off season. It rests in your hands Alex
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Re: Dzanan Musa - A Complete Analysis
I thought the same thing too! Such a shame he's had injury issues and never developed a scoring touch.Marcos_Beck wrote: ↑Thu May 26, 2022 2:17 amGood comparison. Too bad Ricky didnt develop into the playmaker he could've been, because at a young age he was really special. I thought he was gonna become the best PG in the league. He's still a pretty good PG, but didn't live up to expectations.
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- AlexS
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Re: Dzanan Musa - A Complete Analysis
High risk, high reward PG. Lives in the paint, "does shit", average at defense.
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Re: Dzanan Musa - A Complete Analysis
ky bowman please
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