Will DeMar DeRozan and Amir Johnson get to play together again?
Following their third consecutive lottery freefall, there's been a lot of anger and disappointment in the Los Angeles Lakers organization. Fury at the constant bad luck - the crashes, the Rajon Rondo drug overdoses, the unexpected late season collapse after an initial hot streak upon acquiring DeMar DeRozan... and yet, there's little that the Purple and Gold can do other than march onward, working with the material they have. It's expected to be a critical offseason, as original Jestor era franchise face Walter Tavares prepares to enter his third season, traditionally the breakout year. Right now, the organization is holding numerous trade talks, the hottest name of which has been Amir Johnson, but any decision isn't likely to come after a series of other dominoes fall.
Here's where the current projections currently stand:
1. #5 is all but guaranteed to stay with the Lakers, and a point guard will be the pick.
Jestor's mancrush on George DePaula is the worst kept secret in the CSL, the Brazilian's supreme rawness aside. Even the painfully slow lack of development from fellow Brazilian Bruno Caboclo, who also entered the league at 18, hasn't deterred the Lakers from making De Paula the guaranteed #5 selection. The problem is that he's all but guaranteed to go before the 5th selection, with some slating him to even go Top 2. In that scenario, the Purple and Gold will overdraft and take their favorite remaining PG - they've been reportedly linked to David Stockton, for example. While some might criticize the Lakers for taking that route, that's exactly the path they opted for when drafting Tavares with the 7th overall selection two years ago, and it's safe to say that's panned out well.
Guaranteed Top 5 players appear to be Justin Anderson, Joel Embiid, and Noah Vonleh, with the other two players in the Top 5 in terms of pure talent/potential currently projected as De Paula and Trevor Lacey. But the Lakers have already said they have zero interest in Lacey, and they likewise passed on the higher ceiling Zach LaVine when selecting Tavares (LaVine, incidentally, is another teenager who has struggled to improve on a slow, super raw start to the league).
But if by some miracle De Paula does fall to the Lakers, not only will he be the pick, it then becomes far more likely that Johnson is traded, as the franchise will then continue their slow rebuild path, projecting to once again hit the lottery the next season while they wait for George to develop.
2. #11 might be traded, and will be a BPA/system fit selection.
The Purple and Gold have been heavily linked to Aaron White with the 11th spot if he's there, most analysts citing a system fit. And in fact, rumors out of the organization are heavy that there's a number of late lottery/mid-first big men who are in conversation for that selection if the pick stays in Los Angeles. As one scout observed, "There's a lot of options in this class for the type of bruising, hardnosed bigs who play smart and aggressively near the basket - not the best at rebounding admittedly, a lot of them, but having Walter Tavares, and if they keep him, Amir Johnson, does a lot to make up for that."
3. No one cares about #25.
While the team's done some scouting for the 25th pick, organizational consensus is that they're as likely to pick blind as not, and the overall assessment is "at least half the bottom third of the first round in this class will be out of the league/scrub journeyman status within 2-3 years." As a result, all of the remaining resources will be committed to the #5, and to a lesser extent , the #11 selections.
DeMar DeRozan's decision may have the biggest impact on the Lakers' offseason
Yet for all the discussion of what the team does with Amir Johnson and their #5 and #11 picks, the one choice that may most dramatically affect the Lakers' offseason plans is one they have no control over. After DeMar DeRozan became a cult hero and borderline All-Star candidate upon arriving in a three way trade with New Orleans and the Clippers, he has a player option of $9.5 million for next season. If he picks up the option and stays, the Purple and Gold have a strong #2 option who will be a huge selling point for potential free agents, including Kevin Durant, who will be *the* primary target under that scenario. While other franchises offer more winning rosters, the Lakers would then come equipped with a team that offers excellent roster balance, and a role as a franchise savior in one of the league's most media glitzy markets.
If, on the other hand, DeRozan opts out, Durant won't even be an option, and the team will have to commit major resources to make sure the former comes back. In the current climate of teams flush with cap, that probably means a massive max contract overpay to guarantee he stays. Whereas if he picks up the option, not only can the Lakers make an aggressive run at A-list free agents who fit their current situation, but they'll be in a much better position to re-sign DeRozan at a much more reasonable contract as teams will see their cap space slashed under their annual summer spending spree.
Or they also might simply decide that a max or near-max contract is simply too much to pay for DeRozan. In that event, it's a virtual certainty that Amir Johnson is traded, despite being one of the most productive players in the league relative to talent, and one of the CSL's most beautiful, team-friendly contracts. Other players likely to move in that situation are anyone not named Walter Tavares and the #5/#11 picks. Under any other scenario, however, Johnson changing jerseys without ever playing for the Lakers is, according to multiple insiders, "a 50/50 proposition. His talent is there, he's got the perfect SF size and production we look for, has an exceptional contract, and is in the early part of his prime."
Rumor has it that the front office has fielded a number of interesting offers for the forward, as well as some that have elicited massive hilarity and outright rejection. According to anonymous sources, at least three teams are dangling first round picks, including two offers of future firsts. One offer reportedly also offers an interesting young player in addition to a future pick, and is said to be the current leader, depending on the pick in question, as another team is offering an intriguing future selection. Another offer is a bigger one, with a solid veteran player and a pick, but those details are also being worked out.
2028
Though full disclosure, I have an MFA in Creative Writing, and have two jobs - one teaching English at the university level, the other as Director of Public Relations for a Las Vegas talent management, show production, and public relations firm. So it comes with the territory.
