Everyone already knows about Beasley’s ability to shoot 3s, but it’s Isaiah Whitehead that could prove to be the difference maker for the Suns come crunch time
- Phoenix- The Suns have a sizable lead atop the standings in the West, which has allowed them to begin experimenting with lineups the latter part of the year. Are the Suns really that much better than they were last year? There are a lot of moving variables, so let’s take a look at some of the bigger ones. The Suns had a largely successful regular season last year as well, going 60-22. In fact, they only lost out on the 1st seed in the West by virtue of losing a tie-breaker with the Oklahoma City Thunder. So there was optimism among fans for a strong push at the title last year. Unfortunately, the Suns had several big flaws that proved fatal in the post-season. They struggled mightily in the first round against the Nuggets, needing a game 7 win at home to escape, with Drummond being out and Wall getting injured at some point during the game 7 clincher. Regardless, the Suns survived and advanced. Unfortunately, the Suns proved to be nothing more than a speed bump for the Kings in the second round, getting run over 4 games to 1 despite having HCA.
Virtually all of the same names are back for the Suns this time around. Their record was 52-11 up until they sat their best players this past sim in a bout of gamesmanship with the Rockets. They’re on pace to surpass last year’s 60, and the closest team in the West has 7 more losses (Spurs). But are the Suns really that much better than last year? It is no secret that the West is pretty weak overall this year. That’s not an indictment on the projected playoff teams, as all 8 are quality teams 4+ games over .500 and capable of doing damage in the playoffs. Rather, it is the rest of the teams in the conference that are quite listless. There is a monumental gap between the playoff teams and the non-playoff teams. For comparison, the 9th place team in the West is currently 7 games under .500. So needless to say there are a lot of easy games on the schedule for the Suns (although the Suns have managed to lose to some these bottom feeders a few times… but that’s a story for another time). That bloats the Suns’ record a bit. Add in that the Thunder (the top seed in the West last year) completely blew up their roster to rebuild, and the reigning champion Sacramento Kings have seemingly been on holiday for large stretches of the season (just cruising along without a care in the world, knowing they’ll still easily make the playoffs), and that adds a few more wins to the Suns. Which bloats the record a little more. But make no mistake, the Kings will undoubtedly tighten things up come playoff time, where Westbrook will be unleashed and we’ll see if he has another Beast Mode postseason in him (only a fool would bet against this). So let’s throw-out the winning percentage as a strong indicator of whether the team is indeed stronger than last year, and take a look at what’s really different from last year, since again, most of the names on the roster are the same.
Ability to slow down opposing elite point guards:
This was one of the biggest things that haunted the Suns in the playoffs last year. In the first round, Wall torched the Suns so bad early on in the series that they ended up going to a moderate zone (~5) as an attempt to slow Wall down a bit. And anyone that follows the Suns knows that they had to be desperate to deploy such defensive measures, seeing as they have little to no respect for teams that deploy a high zone (or as they refer to it, the “cross your fingers and hope your opponent has an off shooting night” strategy). A key component to the Suns’ system is built on forcing turnovers and fast-breaks. Unfortunately, TJ McConnell just could not keep up with Wall, which forced the Suns to abandon their own system. The Suns were caught off-guard because they had so much regular season success with McConnell at the 1, that it lured them into a false sense of security. The key thing they overlooked was that you only play a handful of elite PGs during the regular season because they’re… well… rare. So the regular season stats were bloated by all of the mediocre and crappy PGs they faced. TJ had no problems with most of them. But when you make the playoffs, your competition gets tougher and tougher (duh), and TJ just could not handle Wall. Similarly in the second round, the Kings rolled Westbrook at the point a few games and he just steamrolled TJ (to put it lightly). To be fair though, the Kings moved Westbrook around and he steamrolled anyone and everyone. That guy was just an unstoppable monster last year.
Shaq’s presence in the backcourt has been a big upgrade for the Suns thus far
So the top priority for the Suns in the offseason was to upgrade defensively at PG. As just about everyone is already aware (except maybe for the newest GMs), the Suns went very hard after Shaquille Harrison in the draft and eventually got their hands on him. Shaq is the one pivotal new face in Phoenix this year. Despite being just a rookie, he’s already shown to be an upgrade over TJ in this area. He is a good man-defender, he blocks shots at an elite rate for a guard (currently averaging 1.1 blocks/gm), and he is a great ball thief that thrives in the high pressure defensive system the Suns like to run (currently T-6th in steals/gm with 1.8). He’s also pretty good on the glass, which is an overlooked defensive trait to ending opponent possessions. Only time will tell if he can stand up in the playoffs when it matters most, but the team is optimistic the rookie will perform better than TJ.
Ability to beat zones:
From talking to Nuggets’ GM Myles after last year’s 1st round of the playoffs, he indicated that when the Nuggets employed the zone, it noticeably slowed down the Suns’ offense. This helped lead the Nuggets to the brink of a 1st round upset. The Kings also ran zone to varying degrees in the next round, and outside of one game where the Suns shot very well, the Suns had no answer (although in all honesty, there were a whole list of categories the Kings dominated in). The Suns lacked shooters, and the book was out on how to beat them.
So if acquiring a defensive point guard was priority #1, acquiring shooters was priority 1A. Unfortunately, this proved very difficult to do. With the explosion of lazy, zone defenses being employed in recent seasons (let’s just focus on offense and use zone to cover our defensive deficiencies…) in an effort to copy the Heat’s thriving system, and the announcement of the impending engine switch to DDS19, shooters have become a VERY hot commodity. Their value has skyrocketed muc faster than any other player type, and as a result, GMs have been hoarding shooters like never before. There were several quality role players available on the trade market, but with all due respect to the available guys out there, the Suns already have a plethora of quality role players. A role-playing shooter was not going to move the needle for the Suns. So the Suns went big-game hunting instead. The Suns attempted to make big offers on players like Trae Young, Kris Dunn, Khris Middleton and Otto Porter. The Suns’ front office was willing to offer young stars and picks, which is something they don’t usually do. Unfortunately, most of the GMs wouldn’t even entertain trade talks on these players, regardless of what was offered. There was also one GM that was willing to talk trade, but he lost track of the trade deadline and that was that haha.
So the Suns were forced to look towards their own players for improvement in this area. Fortunately the cupboard was not completely bare in this area, as the Suns had been drafting some unheralded shooters over the past few seasons in an attempt to address this area of need. This strategy is the slower approach, with each of these players needed serious attention if they were going to help the Suns, but in this case, it was the only feasible approach. So the Suns’ coaching staff went to work. First and most important was Malik Beasley. Beasley is a gifted scorer that can shoot it efficiently at any level. Coming into the season, Beasley’s shots were very spread out, but the 2023 Suns needed (way) more 3-point shooting, so Malik has been focusing more and more on how to find open shots beyond the arc, and thus far it has worked. Last year Beasley shot 40.2% on 3.0 3PAs. This season Beasley is shooting 40.8% on 7.3 3PAs. Next up was Terrance Ferguson, whom the coaching staff has loved because of his defensive potential, but he was just a very raw 18 year old rookie last year. But time was not on the Suns’ side, so it was time to take the training wheels off this kid to see what he could do. Ferguson had a great camp, which saw him boom in several key defensive areas. It was enough that the coaches felt comfortable throwing Ferguson out on the court for extended minutes because at the very least, he would be an asset defensively. Although he’s still just a sophomore (and thus can’t handle heavy minutes yet), and he doesn’t quite take enough shots to make the coaches completely happy, there’s no arguing that he’s been a success thus far: averaging 42.8% on 4.2 3PAs. He is the Suns’ most efficient player this year with a TS% in the high 60s. And then there is Isaiah Whitehead, whom the coaching staff drafted with very high hopes, but his development has been slower than they would have liked. His potentials were that of a well-rounded guard that could shoot, score, defend and playmake, all to a solid degree. It’s taken him a bit to get here, but he seems to be finally scratching the surface of his potential in year 4. His shooting has been quite streaky and erratic through his first 3 years (42.6% on 0.9 3PAs in year 1, 36.0% on 2.5 3PAs in year 2, 34.7% on 2.8 3PAs in year 3). Enough so that the staff wasn’t quite sure what to make of him or what his future held. But (again) the coaches were out of other options for 3-point shooting, so they were forced to put his feet to the fire to see what he could do with more minutes and instructions. He was drafted to be the eventual starting PG, but due to his slower development and the team’s drafting of Shaq, the Suns have had to find other ways to get him on the court. First they moved TJ from last year’s starting PG to reserve PG this year. That opened up the back-up PG minutes, but that still wasn’t enough. The Suns needed more 3-point shooting, so they tinkered more with some lineups and opened up a few minutes at the off-guard position. It was enough to where Whitehead has been able to average 28 minutes per game to give the coaches an idea of what he’s capable of in extended time, and thus far Whitehead has not disappointed, shooting 40.1% on 5.4 3PAs.
The Suns now have 3 players that are shooting over 40% from beyond the arc, and taking 4+ attempts every game. In addition to the players that can shoot a solid J (Taylor, Shaq, Austin, Okaro), will this be enough to get the Suns over the hump come playoff time? Only time will tell. The Suns see high zones on a regular basis, and that is expected to continue. Some nights have gone well, others have not, but thus far the Suns have been able to get wins in most of those games, so take that for what you will. But the playoffs are a whole different animal, so the Suns’ shooters better not pull a CJ McCollum.
2028
