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Transition Case Study 2: Stretch Forward

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emplep7
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Transition Case Study 2: Stretch Forward

Post by emplep7 »

This is the second installment in a series of five (5) that will showcase real player scenarios from what was observed in the last set of pre-season sims. This is meant to provide some information to the league on what to look for when setting player preferences to return your player to their expected performances.

NOTE: Names of player are being withheld on purpose so that GMs can focus on the player type instead of the specific player.

Transition Case Study 2: Stretch Forward

Pre-season Observations

1. This player had a severe dip in overall efficiency and volume during pre-season 2, which saw his effectiveness as a player take a big hit scoring around 10 ppg on 41% from the field.

2. This is a forward who played well in DDS19 and has good shooting potentials from all over, so seeing his FG% dip that low was surprising given that they were a good player previously.

3. This player was spending most of his time in the corner or mid range.

Adjustment Approach

1. First, looking at his shooting ratings/potentials from the Player Potential Database, this player is good to very good all over the court with strengths at MID and COR and strong from ATB and ITP. This is an important first step in trying to determine what to focus a player's ball actions on as this provides a link to the appropriate distribution.

2. Secondly, looking at this players pre-season shot chart (see below) over a season, this player shot pretty well within 3-10 feet and did really good at mid range, which aligns to their shooting potential ratings in the database.

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Final Adjustments

1. This player is really good from all over, with high potentials in MID, COR, and good ITP and ATB. Since this player has so much offensive diversity, its important to focus on where his strengths are, but still sending him a good big to higher percentage shots in the post for his position.

Floor Locations were set to the following:

50 POST, 20 MID, 10 ATB, 20 COR

2. For Ball Actions, the primary were still set to Post Up with the next one set to be Drive/Shot (Post was 2X Drive Shot). Pull Up and C&S were set to the same at a mid level and Drive/Pass was set to the minimum amount. This would allow the forward to still utilize higher percentage shots close to the basket where he is good, but take advantage of his very strong midrange and corner game.

Final Observations

1. The player performed much better this time around with totals of around 19 ppg on 46% FGs (0.553 TS%). He was much more effective this time around with the changes. In DDS19, the player averaged around 20ppg on 48% from the field (0.556 TS%).

2. See the adjusted shot chart below:

Image


3. The player was built around their shot strengths in the database and it both increased efficiencies, but also their volume in general. Rebounds also went up as part of the adjustments as well (from 4.9 ppg to 8.1) which is another thing to consider.

Overall Thoughts: The player is pretty much set to an optimal level based on their DDS19 preferences and is back to where they are expected to be. Some minor tweaks could be made to try and milk as much out of them as possible, but this is what I would expect as a general baseline for any stretch forward in the league.

Feel free to comment and ask questions below, but hopefully these are helpful for you all as more of them come out!
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Silogical
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Re: Transition Case Study 2: Stretch Forward

Post by Silogical »

good stuff. The players that have a backup plan from exploiting DDS19's Post are the ones that will come out on top.

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Re: Transition Case Study 2: Stretch Forward

Post by Dennis »

Did we change FGJ ratings in some way? Or was that a fluke season? Player averaged basically 50% in jumper. I can’t remember more than 2-3 that had scouting reports >50 in FGJ. Even >45 is super rare. Confuses me a bit
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Re: Transition Case Study 2: Stretch Forward

Post by emplep7 »

Dennis wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 7:13 pm Did we change FGJ ratings in some way? Or was that a fluke season? Player averaged basically 50% in jumper. I can’t remember more than 2-3 that had scouting reports >50 in FGJ. Even >45 is super rare. Confuses me a bit
That would diminish the testing to add another variable like changing shooting ratings so nothing was changed outside of what was mentioned in the writeup.
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Re: Transition Case Study 2: Stretch Forward

Post by Dennis »

emplep7 wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 7:44 pm
Dennis wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 7:13 pm Did we change FGJ ratings in some way? Or was that a fluke season? Player averaged basically 50% in jumper. I can’t remember more than 2-3 that had scouting reports >50 in FGJ. Even >45 is super rare. Confuses me a bit
That would diminish the testing to add another variable like changing shooting ratings so nothing was changed outside of what was mentioned in the writeup.
Then it’s a fluke season imo. I don’t see that player repeat shooting that well from FGJ in many seasons.
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Re: Transition Case Study 2: Stretch Forward

Post by WillyJakkz »

Thanks for all of the work and information admins, testing you're doing is very useful!
Silogical wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 4:31 pm good stuff. The players that have a backup plan from exploiting DDS19's Post are the ones that will come out on top.
What do you mean?

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Re: Transition Case Study 2: Stretch Forward

Post by Silogical »

WillyJakkz wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 8:02 pm Thanks for all of the work and information admins, testing you're doing is very useful!
Silogical wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 4:31 pm good stuff. The players that have a backup plan from exploiting DDS19's Post are the ones that will come out on top.
What do you mean?
A lot of players lived in the post in DDS19. They cant do that now. The players that lived in the post but were still good in other areas will still be decent when their pref work is fixed. Playes that were terrible everywhere and only got by using the post exploit dont really have anywhere to go except really high drive/pass.

FG% will normalize once these players have their shots reduced.

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Re: Transition Case Study 2: Stretch Forward

Post by WillyJakkz »

Silogical wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 8:11 pm
WillyJakkz wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 8:02 pm Thanks for all of the work and information admins, testing you're doing is very useful!
Silogical wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 4:31 pm good stuff. The players that have a backup plan from exploiting DDS19's Post are the ones that will come out on top.
What do you mean?
A lot of players lived in the post in DDS19. They cant do that now. The players that lived in the post but were still good in other areas will still be decent when their pref work is fixed. Playes that were terrible everywhere and only got by using the post exploit dont really have anywhere to go except really high drive/pass.

FG% will normalize once these players have their shots reduced.
Oh ok I understand. Thanks for the explanation!

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Re: Transition Case Study 2: Stretch Forward

Post by andrei »

So effectively we are now giving high Post Location to all, even sharpshooters? This players strengths Locations are 20% less than his not so strong areas.

I don't really get why Corner is only 20 - what would happen if we had Corner 40 and Post 30?
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Re: Transition Case Study 2: Stretch Forward

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andrei wrote: Wed Aug 10, 2022 8:42 am So effectively we are now giving high Post Location to all, even sharpshooters? This players strengths Locations are 20% less than his not so strong areas.

I don't really get why Corner is only 20 - what would happen if we had Corner 40 and Post 30?
It really depends of how you want to use this player.
For a high volume player we found that using him all over the place will give him enough opportunities. And having him a bit closer to the basket some of the time raises his efficiency.
And there are probably quite a few different ways to set up this player.

If you have a sharpshooter you can make him camp out behind the 3pt line with success. The volume of shots he get may be a problem tough.
For some player that is exactly what you want to space the floor, for some other player it may not fit even if they are good outside shooter.

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Re: Transition Case Study 2: Stretch Forward

Post by hardenwithnod »

Flaming Homer wrote: Wed Aug 10, 2022 12:37 pm
andrei wrote: Wed Aug 10, 2022 8:42 am So effectively we are now giving high Post Location to all, even sharpshooters? This players strengths Locations are 20% less than his not so strong areas.

I don't really get why Corner is only 20 - what would happen if we had Corner 40 and Post 30?
It really depends of how you want to use this player.
For a high volume player we found that using him all over the place will give him enough opportunities. And having him a bit closer to the basket some of the time raises his efficiency.
And there are probably quite a few different ways to set up this player.

If you have a sharpshooter you can make him camp out behind the 3pt line with success. The volume of shots he get may be a problem tough.
For some player that is exactly what you want to space the floor, for some other player it may not fit even if they are good outside shooter.
Yeah, I tried to make Aaron Wiggins into a pure catch and shoot guy at corner, ATB, and some mid range. Sure, he shot well, but he barely shot the ball lol. Same thing with Graham, as the database had him shooting well from the outside, and I tried to make him stay around the perimeter much more, and the result was that he shot a lot less.
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Re: Transition Case Study 2: Stretch Forward

Post by Rizzo »

Thank you for fixing Aleksander Vezenkov! ;)
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Re: Transition Case Study 2: Stretch Forward

Post by emplep7 »

Rizzo wrote: Wed Aug 10, 2022 3:05 pm Thank you for fixing Aleksander Vezenkov! ;)
Hahah, you think we’d waste any time trying to fix that bum?
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