#4 Overall Pick Has Been Complete Disaster
Jaylen Hoard has emerged as the analytical darling this preseason
The preseason press predicted Portland to finish last in the Western Conference, and thus far, the exhibition season has verified that high lottery standing. At 4-12, the Blazers are ahead of only the perennially underachieving Utah Jazz in the conference and Atlanta is the sole worse squad to date this preseason in the East.
Much of the lightning rod criticism has fallen on Tyrese Haliburton's shoulders, the rookie the worst-performing of the entire team. He's looked completely lost on the court offensively, though his defensive work has actually been quite good.
But when you dig deeper into the lineup performances, you see a Milos Teodosic/Haliburton/Jaylen Hoard/Franz Wagner/Laurynas Birutis lineup whose +36.2 NET rating is the highest one of 10+ minutes of play time and you see something worth investigating further.
"The data suggests that the Diallo the Younger/Haliburton backcourt combination doesn't work," said a source. "And there's only two positive lineups with Haliburton at PG, for a total combined 5 minutes of playtime. I think they're reconsidering the idea of Hali as a combo guard and are increasingly coming under the viewpoint that it's Diallo and Teodosic who are their PGs, with Cameron Oliver looking surprisingly effective at the 1 so far."
On the positive side, after a sluggish start, Laurynas Birutis appears to be rounding back into form, Diallo has proved largely capable of holding down the point guard role, and Jaylen Hoard is showing massive improvements in shooting - to the point where one could make the argument that he's now the team's second-best player next to Birutis.
Right now, the best lineup over 100 minutes has been Diallo/Teodosic/Hoard/Wagner/Birutis, clocking in a break-even +0.5 Net in 129 minutes. It's a starting five that echoes last season's Ja Morant/Diallo/Hoard/Jordan Mickey/Birutis' +1.1 NET. But that's not likely to be the starting group heading into the regular season.
As one Blazers employee anonymously said, "There's no upside for them in that lineup. They want something that will give as many minutes as possible to the young guys, and if they have to sacrifice Diallo to do it, so be it. Honestly, what's really surprised me is Kyle Guy out here with a +27.2 ON and +41.9 NET. Yeah, it's small sample size at 3.1 minutes a game, but you have to think he's going to get a longer look based on that."
In essence, Portland's lineup is unsettled at the moment in the backcourt. PF, too, is a position that's uncertain - Jordan Mickey has looked comfortable in an all-veteran lineup of Diallo/Teodosic/Hoard/Mickey/Birutis and the Four Factors lineup data suggests that as the best one if the Blazers wanted to win now.
The only absolute stone-cold locks are Hoard at SF and Birutis at C. There isn't a single lineup that suggests Keita Bates-Diop or Goodluck Okonoboh would be better options in the first five.
Haliburton Benched?
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Re: Haliburton Benched?
He shouldn’t be benched, he’s one of the most efficient guards in the new world at 41%!
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Re: Haliburton Benched?
Haliburton is only putting up 5.4 shots a game. Hard for him to get his offense going thus far. Hopefully he'll get up more shots.
Diallo has taken completely over not sure if it's for the best as you stated Milos Diallo is working better.
Good to see Franz shooting the rock, he seems to be looking for his offense.
Diallo has taken completely over not sure if it's for the best as you stated Milos Diallo is working better.
Good to see Franz shooting the rock, he seems to be looking for his offense.
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Re: Haliburton Benched?
Actually, rookies have been pretty bad across the board - Edwards, ZDK, Hali, Wagner are all showing the worst +/- on teams. I also think benching him is rough. Your key priority is his development so benching him for what? an extra win or two?
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Re: Haliburton Benched?
Not nearly in the same stratum as those draftees, but Paul Reed has impressed thus far.
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