Free Agent Rankings

[OneNole]

I know Andre just came out with a UFA free agent list, but here I will be ranking all free agents with a percentage I think that the player leaves and a rough estimate that they may receive. Age listed will be the age of the player for next season. I am sure I may have overlooked some, I will edit my order further when I get some time, but this took a little bit longer than I was hoping it to. I also don't expect these values to hold up. Several players signed for far less than I expected them to last year while others signed for a lot more.

1. Kristaps Porzingis - 28 - Max - 75% leaves
There is a reason why that the Kings opened up as much free agent space as they did and that is for Kristaps Porzingis. The former number 1 overall pick has had an up and down career for the Magic but is still a star. Porzingis has very little loyalty with high greed and a high play for winner. Something the Kings can certainly accommodate.
RFA Michael Porter - 24 - Max - 0Porter has gone to another level this season and is now in serious contention for the MVP. If he was unrestricted he would certainly have been number 1 on this list. 

2. RFA Jaren Jackson - 21 - Max - 0%
If Jackson wasn't an RFA, I would probably list him above Porzingis. Teams need to offer him a max just to keep NY in cap hell, but there is obviously a 0% chance that any and all offers will not be matched for the all-star level big man. 

3. RFA Miles Bridges - 24 - Max - 0%
Bridges is one of the big name stars of this offseason. Bridges is having another all star level season averaging nearly 20ppg 4 assists 4 boards and 1 block and a steal per game. There is 0 chance Boston lets him walk, but teams should still offer a max to ensure Boston stays honest.

4. RFA Troy Brown - 23 - Max - 0
Troy Brown is blossoming into one of the young stars in the league. Milwaukee is currently in an excellent cap position, which is why it's important for teams to keep them honest and max Troy Brown. The key for Brown is if he can keep these shooting numbers, or is this season an outlier instead of the norm. 

5. RFA Shaq Harrison - 25 - Max - 0
One of the best defensive PGs in the league that can also play SG and SF. He should get maxed instantly, defensive PGs are just far too valuable in this league to not be.

6. RFA Kaiser Gates - 24 - Max - 0
Gates is another big name free agent this year, and someone I think whose value actually overrates his production. Detroit will have a lot of issues this year and would probably love to see Parker decline his player option otherwise they will be desperate to make trades to free up cap. While there is no chance Detroit lets Gates leave, teams have to offer a max to keep them honest.

7. RFA Laurynas Birutis - 25 -12m - 10
Another young quality big man who I think Jestor is a bit  disappointed in how his season played out. He is an excellent rebounder, and good defender but doesn't quite score as much as he should unless the offense is tailored for him.

8. Khris Middleton - 30- 14m - 25
Middleton will be one of my biggest question marks this offseason. A player who I don't think quite lived up the hype coming out of Texas A&M but is still one of the better 3&D wings in the league which is always extremely valuable. I can see a team coming in with a very large offer to attempt to steal him from Milwaukee this summer. The question is, with a team as conservative as Milwaukee, who also does not like to trade, will they come close to ensure they retain an upcoming 30 year old player. I can see Middleton giving Milwaukee a discount, but the question is how much of a discount will he give and is Milwaukee brave enough to risk it?

9. RFA Landry Shamet - 25 - 10m - 95%
Don't let the RFA status fool you, unless Kevin can pull a rabbit out of his hat, he is going to lose all of his free agents this offseason in what should certainly be considered terrible long term planning. While I cant say that Shamet is better than every player below him, due to his age and Utahs inability to match elevates Shamets value this offseason. Shamet is an elite 3 point gunner in the league and if not for playing alongside other dominant scorers would see his numbers rise significantly as well. I would not be surprised if his contract comes in much higher than 10 million.

10.Draymond Green - 31 - 13m - 50%
I honestly do not know what Phoenix will do with Green this offseason or at what price point they will draw the line at. Green has certainly been a disappointment for them and hasn't elevated them like many of us expected. While he will now be 31, his defensive numbers are still so high that he will be 34 before he will no longer be considered a starting level player and will likely end his career as a SF. I would feel safe giving him a 4 year contract which really puts his price up in the air. 

11. RFA Robert Williams - 24 - Max - 60%
Another young star for the Pistons. While his stats aren't great, don't be fooled, he is a player that could blow up on a team that utilizes him properly. Pistons just simply do not need him and have not needed to tailor their offense around him. I honestly can't see how the Pistons can open up enough cap space without losing in trades to retain both Williams and Gates.

12. RFA Mikal Bridges - 26 - Max - 0%
While Bridges certainly isn't worth a max, Philadelphia gave up a lot to acquire him and if Terrance Ferguson got a max I would expect Bridges to get one as well. An excellent 3&D wing who doesn't quite shoot it enough to warrant that large of an offer. But for what Philly gave up to acquire him, they will certainly match any and all offers to retain him. 

13. Briante Weber - 29 - 12m - 20%
Weber is a little higher on the list due to simply not being an RFA. With so many teams desire for ball hawking defenders that can shoot efficiently, I would not be surprised to see Weber get a max or near max offer. The Pacers will have a very difficult decision to make if Weber indeed does get a high offer. With Jalen Smith, Royce O'Neale, Gary Payton set to be free agents next year, and Jaxson Hayes, Patton, and Ojeleye the season after the Pacers will very quickly be put into a tough cap situation. 

14. RFA Elie Okobo - 25 - 9m - 95%
Similar situation to Shamet above. I would rate him lower but due to Utahs inability to match raises him up a level. Another elite 3 point shooter who doesn't get much playing time because Utah has so many wings that take away his playing time. On the right team I think Okobo could easily average over 16 ppg if given the right instructions and minutes.

15. RFA Marcus Derrickson - 25 - Max - 20%
Derrickson has had a breakout season this year for the Nets and could be in line for a large overpay. The Nets should be concerned about what teams will offer for their rising star and may need to make other trades to ensure they can resign him. The Nets can not resign Derrickson to a max contract without making a trade to drop salary as a max deal would put them over the hard cap.

16. RFA John Collins - 24 - 12 m to Max - 0
I am a big Collins fan, he is a good rebounder, great low post defender, with an improving offensive game. He is one of the lone bright players on this struggling Cavs team. Expect a large contract to keep the Cavs honest this offseason.

17. RFA Chimezie Metu - 25 - 10m to 12m - 0
Another defensive minded post player. Don't let his stats fool you, if he played more minutes and was on a team that didnt have Layman or PJ Dozier, there would be a lot more shots available. Warriors are in a great cap situation, which is why teams really need to go hard after Metu. Otherwise, if Golden State is able to resign him for a discount it will be much easier for them to retain the rights to Layman, White, and Smith next season. With that said, there is a very good chance Layman opts out this season.

18. RFA Davon Reed - 26 - 11m to max - 0
A huge coup of a trade for Kyrus in landing Reed and Livingston from the Spurs, Reed is an excellent 3&D wing that makes the 3 at a very high percentage and is still developing. Reed really needs to receive a high level offer this offseason to put pressure on the Rockets cap

19. Hassan Whiteside - 32 - 10m+ - 50%
Whiteside is one of the best shot blockers in the league, in a league that doesn't have many of them. Whiteside has very high greed with just average loyalty and could be a player that may leave if a team wants to overpay him. With Hlinason in the wings, my gut says Boston lets Whiteside walk this year if a team offers a multi year large contract.

20. Kosta Antetokounmpo - 22 - 10m+
Kosta never quite lived up to the expectations I had for him when I had Dallas draft him 4 seasons ago. But he is still a very tantalizing player that at the age of 22 will get a nice payday. He can play 4 positions and defense all 5. That alone should get him a contract into the 8 figures. 

21. Kadeem Allen - 29 - 9m - 100%
Another stud free agent for the Pistons. I call Allen a mini Gates. A stud defender who could start for many teams. A very low usage player whose job is to simply make life hell for the opposing player.

22. RFA Markelle Fultz - 23 - Max - 5%
The enigma that is Markelle Fultz. I think Fultz was certainly a player that got hurt with the engine switch, and while he is certainly playing better as of late, he continues to show the inconsistency that has plagued him his entire career. While I do not think Fultz is a max level player, teams certainly must offer Fultz a max because New Orleans has to match it. They have spent too much capital to retain him to not match it. Trading away Nunn (who I would argue is better than Fultz) to move Bledsoe's contract just so they had the capital to resign Fultz all but guarantees they will match any and all offers on Fultz. A team like Memphis that can afford to send out multiple max contracts should definitely offer the max to hurt a division rival.

23. Collin Sexton - 23 - 10m - 0%
Sexton is really starting to come into his own and is a solid young PG. He will never become an all-star but with further instructions his game will continue to elevate. 

24. D'Angelo Russell - 27 - 9m - 50%
It's hard to believe that Russell will only be 27 next season. Anytime I think of him, I think of an enigma, but he is actually a very solid player and would be an elite 6th man for many contenders in this league. He plays solid defense and can score the ball. While he is shooting the 3 well this year, one should wonder if those numbers are actually sustainable. Regardless, I would expect many teams to show interest in Russell this offseason. 

25. RFA Deyonta Davis - 23 - 9m -0%
Davis has certainly flown under my radar. Maybe because I never look at OKC roster as I know TJ never logs in to trade anyways. Davis is a very solid low post player in this league. While not a star, someone that can easily be a 4th/5th starter on a contending team or an elite 1st big off of the bench. 

26. RFA PJ Washington - 25 - 9m - 10%
PJ hasnt received the playing time in Chicago I expected him to after trading Bam for him. I am not sure if Rhoxxy is trying to keep his value low or not. PJ is a good post player with good efficiency. While certainly not a star, if given starter minutes could easily see averages of 13 8 and over 1 block per game.

27. RFA Brandon McCoy - 24 - 8m+ - 30%
McCoy is having a down season this year and the Hornets need to decide their long term plans with him. McCoy has very low loyalty and very high greed, so he could very easily sign a contract with another team and would put the pressure on the Hornets whether to match or not.

28. Montrezl Harrell - 31 - 12m - 90%
I actually thought I had Harrell acquired at the deadline this year in a 3 way deal to only see it fall apart last minute. Harrell has really elevated his game these last few seasons going from a bench big to becoming one of the better starters in the league. Tough gritty player that does everything well and doesn't lose you games. I would expect a team to give him a large short term contract in the range of what I gave Andre Drummond and Aaron Gordon last season.

29. Dillon Brooks - 27 - 5m - 60%
I know Brooks was close to being traded during the season to a contender, but due to cap numbers they couldnt quite get the salaries to match. Brooks is a solid low usage 3&D player who Utah may be able to keep due to how deep this free agent pool is. 
Zach Lavine - 32 - 9m - 30%One of the top 3 point gunners in the league. While his defense will get worse next year, his 3 point shooting will keep teams that rely on post offense honest. If you zone the Clippers, Lavine is there to make you pay, if you man up on them Cousins will slash you inside. It's what makes players like Lavine so valuable.

30. Matthias Lessort - 28 - 7m - 50%
Boston wont let Whiteside and Lessort walk, Lessort is an underrated player who hasn't gotten much burn for the Celtics. While he isnt great at anything, he is solid at everything and would be a very good first big off the bench for many teams in this league.

31. Kevin Knox - 24 - 8m - 50%
I questioned whether or not to put Knox on this list as I think he is truly a net negative, but there is going to be a team that offers the 24 year old a contract. I just do not think he is a player tailored for this engine. 

32. Myles Turner - 29 - 7m - 90%
Turner is another player that didn't quite live up to expectations. His efficiency isn't quite what I like out of a big man but he is solid everywhere else. Solid rebounder, defender, can get blocks and steals. A solid spot starting big at this stage of his career.

33. Jordan Adams - 32 - 9m - 50%
I am a huge Jordan Adams fan and if he was younger he would be much higher up on this list. I thought I had him acquired multiple times this season to only have the deal fall through at the last second. An excellent low usage defensive player that can defend at all levels. m2m, steals, blocks. His efficiency really dropped off moving to this engine but his defense remains elite.

34. Willie Cauley-Stein - 10m - 50%
I am very surprised that WCS plays as little as he does for NY. I know their front court is stacked, but I would think he would still play over their other bench bigs. I know Andrew is saying he is trash now, but thats just foolish, and maybe they are saving him for the playoffs to keep his value low. I am not sure, all I do know is that WCS is still a very valuable player and teams should look at large 2 year offers for him.

35. Treveon Graham - 32 - 7m - 75%
Graham will really depend on how much he is offered this offseason. He is still a very good 3&D wing player that any team will want. With Davon Reed expecting a big raise this offseason, I dont think Houston can really afford to pay him much more than 7m, especially anything longer than 2 seasons.

36. E'twaun Moore - 32 - 7m - 40%
Another solid 3&D wing. Will still be a solid contributor for a couple more seasons. 

37. Michael Gbinije - 28 - 8m - 90%
A very underrated player, Gbinije is a young defensive stud for the Nuggets who is more consistent offensively than perception indicates. With the Nuggets up against the hard cap and their desire to have 2 max slots next free agents, I would not expect to see Gbinije to return next season.

38. Emmanuel Mudiay - 28 - 6m - 90%
Mudiay is a player that puts up a lot of points on bad teams. His efficiency is just too low and arguably hurts you more than he helps you. With that said, there will certainly be a team that will give him a contract. Too much skill to not take a chance on.

39. Nikola Mirotic - 31 - 8m - 80%
Mirotic is having by far the worst season of his career, which not only destroyed his value for this offseason, but also destroyed any sort of value Portland was hoping to receive in a trade. Someone will still take a chance on him as he hasn't yet declined and he has been too good for too long to not. 

40. Otto Porter - 34 - 5 to 7m - 20%
Porter is still a very solid player, but will receive a big rating drop this offseason. While he no longer will be the player he once was, his defense will still be good for a couple more years. The chance on him returning will be dependent on if another team gives him a multi year offer or not. 

41. Jae Crowder - 31 - 7m - 50%
Jae Crowder has a lot of fans, but I think his value is higher than his production. I acquired him at what I felt was a good price, and sold him for what I felt was a profit. He is an elite defensive wing that can make the 3. His issue lies in the fact that he is far too inconsistent and for a role player, he can simply shoot you out of games instead of helping you win them. 

42. Nerlens Noel - 33 - 6m - 75%
Noel has a team option for next season but I can almost guarantee that Minnesota will decline it. While getting up there in age, Noel is still a very good low post defender who could still start for many teams in the league and be an excellent bench big. 

43. Damien Inglis - 32 - 7m - 50%
Basically everything I said about Crowder applies to Inglis. A lot of teams like him, but his efficiency can really hurt you, fortunately he is not quite as shot happy as Crowder is.

44. Auston Rivers - 30 - 5m - 50%
Rivers will only return to Portland if they strike out on their other options. He has been solid and is solid, but at this point is nothing more than a solid combo guard.

45. Festus Ezeli - 31 - 5m - 90%
Ezeli has value, can defend, block shots, and get rebounds. But his efficiency is so bad, and with his desire to score and draw fouls, he hurts you almost as much as he helps you.

[Dennis]

Nice article and definitely took a lot of time. We gonna have some decisions to make this off-season. But yeah bridges, no doubt, will stay for sure. Enough cap to match a max. We need more big man though that fit our team. So maybe some sign and trades are incoming.

[bt]

Crazy good article Brett, awesome work.

I'll give it a good read and comment later.

[emplep7]

A ton of work went into putting that together, but its clear this is an incredibly stacked class. Teams with CAP space can actually get good players this year as opposed to years in the past. We have a pretty rough offseason ahead which we knew ahead of time and will need to get creative to stay relevant.

[hardenwithnod]

Great detailed read on this FA class. This RFA class is pretty insane lol, and I expect a lot of these guys will get maxed out this off-season, as the UFA class doesn't have a ton of star power.

[wms02a]

This will be a fun FA... I am sad too that we could not come to a finalized deal for Harrell.... Funny how you didnt bold Porter and it looks you are hiding hahaha

I plan on going after KP and Middleton for sure but also looking at 2nd tier RFAs like Okobo, Reed, Metu, and D Davis and see if I could stretch their current teams and pry one of them away..... hard to see how Reed would get a Max, but we have seen crazier.

[Flaming Homer]

Awrsome work Brett.
That will an intetesting offseason and I hope a few aging vets fall thru the gutter so we can restore our depth a bit.

[KW]

this is the culmination of a lot of players from a deep 2018 class becoming UFAs and a deep 2023 class becoming RFAs... it's going to be a frenzy for those who actually have cap space to use

[OneNole]

This will be a fun FA... I am sad too that we could not come to a finalized deal for Harrell.... Funny how you didnt bold Porter and it looks you are hiding hahaha

I plan on going after KP and Middleton for sure but also looking at 2nd tier RFAs like Okobo, Reed, Metu, and D Davis and see if I could stretch their current teams and pry one of them away..... hard to see how Reed would get a Max, but we have seen crazier.

Oops, that was by accident, I had to reformat it quickly after my copy and paste didnt transfer well. I will fix that

[GreenBear]

Really nice article. This deserves to count for more than 1 insider.

[Dylan]

Good article with lots of good info.

Not sure if you skipped over LaVine on purpose or not, but he's definitely a top 45 FA lol

[GreenBear]

Good article with lots of good info.

Not sure if you skipped over LaVine on purpose or not, but he's definitely a top 45 FA lol

He's listed between 29 and 30 but isn't bolded. Probably the same formatting issue as with Porter.

[Dylan]

Good article with lots of good info.

Not sure if you skipped over LaVine on purpose or not, but he's definitely a top 45 FA lol

He's listed between 29 and 30 but isn't bolded. Probably the same formatting issue as with Porter.

Ah I missed it, that makes a lot more sense

[Andrewu91]

2. RFA Jaren Jackson - 21 - Max - 0%
If Jackson wasn't an RFA, I would probably list him above Porzingis. Teams need to offer him a max just to keep NY in cap hell, but there is obviously a 0% chance that any and all offers will not be matched for the all-star level big man

Love you too man

Teams can max him but remember I will be -12m going into free agency. Not an issue to max a guy I made this valuable. Every free agency, I have a game plan. This one won't be different. And anyone knows I don't lose Free Agency.

34. Willie Cauley-Stein - 10m - 50%
I am very surprised that WCS plays as little as he does for NY. I know their front court is stacked, but I would think he would still play over their other bench bigs. I know Andrew is saying he is trash now, but thats just foolish, and maybe they are saving him for the playoffs to keep his value low. I am not sure, all I do know is that WCS is still a very valuable player and teams should look at large 2 year offers for him

Please do..

[Andrewu91]

Good read, funny though I recall in my dm you telling me Derrickson was pretty much worthless and you’d be surprised if he got 7 mill in free agency… looks like my thoughts of him being a max weren’t off at all…..

But go ahead and drive up the price we won’t be matching anything large for a roll player.

Knowing Shane, he would be mad if you maxed. He likes Derrickson and if you offered him a big deal, he might get mad and threaten to quit

[wms02a]

This will be a fun FA... I am sad too that we could not come to a finalized deal for Harrell.... Funny how you didnt bold Porter and it looks you are hiding hahaha

I plan on going after KP and Middleton for sure but also looking at 2nd tier RFAs like Okobo, Reed, Metu, and D Davis and see if I could stretch their current teams and pry one of them away..... hard to see how Reed would get a Max, but we have seen crazier.

Oops, that was by accident, I had to reformat it quickly after my copy and paste didnt transfer well. I will fix that

"accident" jk

[wms02a]

45. Festus Ezeli - 31 - 5m - 90%
Ezeli has value, can defend, block shots, and get rebounds. But his efficiency is so bad, and with his desire to score and draw fouls, he hurts you almost as much as he helps you.

Man I miss NLL Ezeli... might be the best defensive big ever... can we change him in the CSL

[AlexS]

Great article OneNole! As echoed by everyone this is a huge FA class - and the Wolves will have $ to spend!

[OneNole]

Good read, funny though I recall in my dm you telling me Derrickson was pretty much worthless and you’d be surprised if he got 7 mill in free agency… looks like my thoughts of him being a max weren’t off at all…..

But go ahead and drive up the price we won’t be matching anything large for a roll player.

Yep, I was wrong. He wasnt getting any playing time and stats werent great at the time including being bad last season. He really had turned it around as the season has gone on. He will certainly get paid

[OneNole]

Seeing how good this free agency is, I kind of regret pushing my cap space for next year. But had i saved it for this year i doubt i would have signed the guys i got.