Nikola Mirotic has caught fire the last two games
After an 0-3 start and utter iciness from Nikola Mirotic, some Blazers fans were openly questioning the wisdom in not only hiring Jestor as GM, but the roster and coaching staff turnover. Dwayne Wade looked outmatched from a coaching perspective, Mirotic couldn't hit the proverbial broad side of a barn, and the defense looked abysmal.
Fast forward to last night. The Portland Trailblazers upset the Utah Jazz 115-113 on the back of Nikola Mirotic's 34 points, 5 assists, block, and 3 steals; Aaron Holiday's near-triple double of 10 points, 10 rebounds, and 9 assists, and 2nd rookie Finn Delany's 12 bench points on 5/7 shooting, a perfect two for two from downtown.
With that victory, Portland climbed to .500 after that 0-3 start, with their only loss in the last five games a narrow three point loss in Portland to the Phoenix Suns. Were the playoffs held today, the Blazers would be somewhere between the #6-#8 seed, depending on how tiebreakers go (although the Dallas Mavericks are also .500, as division winners, they would be the default 4 seed with home court disadvantage).
What's changed? Mirotic has been on fire the last two games, Aaron Holiday has twice flirted with a triple-double on excellent accuracy, and the bench has indeed improved from last season, with contributions from Vasilije Mcic, Austin Rivers, and Finn Delany happening at various points.
The PIE Factor
According to the CSL FAQ on Advanced Statistics, a team with a PIE above 50% is likely to be a winning team, and a player with an individual PIE above 10% is at least an above average player.
Nikola Mirotic - 16.3%
Aaron Holiday - 15.5%
Laurynas Birutis - 10.9%
Combined, those three players are at 42.9%
Hamidou Diallo - 9.7%
Kawhi Leonard - 8.7%
are the other two starters, giving the Blazers a team PIE above 50%.
It's clearly Mirotic (despite the tundra cold shooting start) and Holiday who are most driving the Portland engine from that standpoint, with Birutis (team-high +6.1 ON and +20.6 NET of the regular starters) functioning as the third-most impactful player.
"It's funny... people kept talking about how Holiday is overpaid and yet here he is, doing work for us at a high level," said a Blazers source. "And some people were skeptical of Birutis, but he's been critical to our success. He's off to a slow shooting start relative to his career (Ed. Note - 46.7%) but that'll go up with time."
The most surprising player: Vasilije Mcic
Without a doubt, the most surprising early season performance has come from 32 year old point guard Vasilije Mcic, who is shooting 50.8% from the floor and 39.1% from behind the arc for 10.6 points, 4 assists, and 4.3 rebounds a game - translating into a 19.3 PER. While the 3 point shooting is no surprise, the veteran is suddenly displaying an ability to convert inside the arc and score that he's never shown before.
"It's probably a fluke," said one CSL analyst. "And when Aleksander Venzenkov is dealt at Day 30, Mcic might see himself benched in favor of the guy who is coming in. Still a really nice story, though."
Regardless of whether it lasts, Mcic is one of six Blazers scoring in double-digits (the five starters of Holiday-Hamidou "The Younger" Diallo/Kawhi Leonard/Mirotic/Birutis the other five).
While it's still very early in the season, signs point to the possibility that despite commentators saying Portland is a "weak team", "definitely lottery", "needs to trade Mirotic and bottom out", the Blazers are indeed a roster that could very well be in the playoff mix throughout the rest of the season.
About those Mirotic Trade Rumors
A few teams have inquired about acquiring Mirotic, but so far nothing has come close to the value Portland places on the 30 year old. "We're perfectly fine keeping him for the year and then rolling with the ton of cap space," said a Blazers front office official. "Especially since it looks like with him we'll be in the playoff hunt, based on the early results. Free agents pay attention to how well your team performs, and we're demonstrating we're a solid club even with all the turnover we had this offseason."
While a deal might still happen, at this present stage, it's looking more likely that the Jestor draftee will buck the trend and be the rare one who stays after his old GM reappears.
