If there was a failing, it's that the rookie assists leader had just 4 dimes per game (Alex Caruso) - yet another Detroit rookie. Despite Trae Young and Frank Ntilikina starting at point guard for at least part of the season for their teams, they just weren't interested in sharing the rock.
Silogical Rookie Ladder Top 10
1. Marvin Bagley
2. Jayson Tatum
3. Trae Young
4. DeAndre Ayton
5. Donovan Mitchell
6. Bam Adebayo
7. Tony Bradley
8. P.J. Washington
9. Frank Ntilikina
10. Kyle Kuzma
This seems like a good starting list to draw from when discussing the top contenders. From it, we can automatically discount Mitchell (too few minutes played), Adebayo (failed to crack 10 PPG and voters tend to highly value scoring), and Kuzma (there's simply better options out there).
Also eliminated: Bradley and Washington (too few GP) and Ntilikina (41.9% shooting and an overall perception of having hugely disappointed his first year - perception matters a lot in the Game of Awards).
Which leaves us with four names - also the top four of the rankings, interestingly enough - and some very interesting arguments for each.
Using the Silogical rankings for convenience sake:
1. Marvin Bagley III (Los Angeles Lakers)
Points: 13.4 (4th team, 3rd rookies)
Rebounds: 7.0 (3rd team, 4th rookies)
Blocks: 1.4 (T-1st Team, T-3rd rookies)
FG%: 49.9 (2nd Team of Qualifiers, 2nd rookies of Qualifiers)
FT%: 62.4 (2nd rookies of only 2 qualifiers)
PotG: 7 (1st rookies)
PotG % of Team Wins: 25.9 (1st rookies)
RotM: 2 (2nd rookies)
TOFC: 1.4
PA/SF: 1.02
Double-Doubles: 15 (T-2nd rookies with Wendell Carter behind P.J. Washington's 19)
The Arguments For
No rookie meant more to his team than Bagley, who won more PotG awards than any other rookie and earned that distinction in almost 26% of the Lakers' wins - over a quarter of them. And it's not like the Purple and Gold were the worst team in the league in this year, or even Top 3. Nope - they were 5th worst. He also, while not leading in any one category, was just behind Trae Young for second place in scoring and was Top 5 in 6 rookie categories we're tacking, Top 3 in 5 of them. You can also make the claim that no one had a more complete, well-rounded level of performance than Bagley did (Washington didn't have the block numbers though still would have been in contention for the award had he appeared in more games).
The Arguments Against
He didn't win any of the counting stats categories and his defense, despite his shotblocking, showed that he still has a lot of work to do on that end before he reaches the franchise player potential he appears to ooze, and made major strides to developing his first year already. Worth noting: His rebounding numbers would have been higher had he not played along two other great boarders in Christian Wood and Cheick Diallo.
2. Jayson Tatum (Denver Nuggets)
Points: 16.5 (2nd team, 1st rookies)
FG%: 44.6 (5th Team Qualifiers, 3rd Rookie Qualifiers
FT%: 80 (1st rookies)
Steals: 0.8 (5th rookies)
PotG: 5 (2nd rookies)
PotG % of Team Wins: 11.6 (2nd of rookies profiled)
RotM: 3 (1st rookies)
TOFC: 1.3
PA/SF: 1.04
Arguments For
Scoring, scoring, and more scoring. Or the Jabari Parker RotY argument. Although his efficiency paled in comparison to Bagley and Ayton, that's a positional difference. When you factor in for position, he would probably rank 2nd in efficiency among rookies. He also swept the first 3 Rookie of the Month awards before being overtaken by Young and Bagley (who won the last two awards), but nonetheless assembled an early lead as a runaway favorite for Rookie of the Year. His team also made the playoffs, but it's worth noting that the Denver Nuggets would not have made it in the East, and in fact would have finished behind Brooklyn. The second most impactful rookie to team performance behind Bagley by my lights. Sublime ability to get to the line and convert at a high rate. In short, the efficient, scoring, impactful rookie most believed he'd be from Day One. Didn't shoot enough to qualify, but his 34.9% 3 point shooting was perfectly acceptable.
Arguments Against
His defense was even worse than Bagley's at 0.1 less TOFC and .02 higher PA/SF. He also did little of distinction outside of shooting and scoring - with 0.8 steals his closest meaningful counting stat. Yes, he still very much has a case for being named Rookie of the Year, but those looking for someone who displayed the complete package and stayed consistent throughout the season will look elsewhere. It's a bit troubling for his prospects that he fell off the awards map after that third month.
3. Trae Young (Charlotte Hornets)
Points: 13.7 (2nd team, 2nd rookies)
Assists: 3.7 (2nd team, 3rd rookies)
Blocks: 1.4 (T-1st Team, T-3rd rookies)
FG%: 43 (4th of team qualifiers, 4th of 4 rookie qualifiers)
3P%: 44.8 (1st team, 1st of 2 rookie qualifiers - Alex Caruso the other)
PotG: 3 (Something like 4th rookies?)
PotG % of Team Wins: 10.3 (3rd of rookies profiled)
RotM: 1 (3rd rookies)
DSR: 79.2%
TOFC: 1.4
PA/SF: 0.92
Arguments For
Arguably the single most exciting rookie to watch - I didn't calculate TS% but because he took almost half his shots from 3 point range at that breathtaking gunner percentage, he probably has the top TS of all the rookies and it's not even close. We expected the scoring pyrotechnics. What we didn't expect was that he would show off strong defense out of the gate, and one can argue he was the best two-way rookie of the year.
Arguments Against
As thrilling and explosive as he could be, he didn't really consistently dominate - nor did he play a major role in his team's success. The assists total, despite the ranking, is damning because of how low it is, and there's the sense that in his first year, he was individually flashy, but didn't make his team better in the way that Bagley and Tatum did. In a race of splitting hairs between the top candidates, that just might knock him out of the award, despite his excellent, surprising two-way game.
4. DeAndre Ayton (Brooklyn Nets)
Points: 10.1 (5th team
Rebounds: 6.3 (3rd team
Blocks: 1.4 (T-1st Team, T-3rd rookies)
FG%: 56.8 (1st Team, 1st Rookies, 6th in the entire CSL!)
PotG: 2 (Least of profiled rookies)
PotG % of Team Wins: 4.3 (Least of profiled rookies)
RotM: 0
TOFC: 0.9
PA/SF: 0.91
Double-Doubles: 6 (T-6th rookies)
Arguments For
Simply put, you're making the case based on his breathtaking efficiency that was just outside of the entire Top 5 in the league and his stellar PA/SF ratio, while also convinced that he did just enough in the counting stats to merit the award. An analytics acolyte's pick, essentially.
Arguments Against
He just didn't get quite enough playing time to amass the counting stats and awards he needed to merit 1st place in Rookie of the Year voting. In every other category save FG % and PA/SF, you'd have to consider Bagley ahead of him, and it's not the analysts who vote - it's the counting stats people.
Prediction
This race is far too close to call for who will actually win among Bagley, Tatum, and Young. It's going to come down to voter preferences for which arguments they like best. One thing is clear - Ayton will be 4th and on the outside looking in, but could end up playing a spoiler role if he steals 2nd and 3rd place votes from some of the other 3 candidates.
2028
