Blake Griffin is a master of post touches in the CSL
The L.A. Times asked me to come out of retirement from my days covering the NLL, the Miami Heat in particular, to discuss the topic of touches in the CSL, and what they can tell us about a player's game. It's a subject that's gaining some currency in recent weeks, as CSL front offices prepare for the offseason and examine what changes can have them challenging the Phoenix Suns, who look near Nll-Detroitesque in their potential to fashion the league's first dynasty. The impetus began when the paper noted that just five big men came near to or surpassed the 40 touch mark in the regular season. However, that's not entirely the accurate list:
By comparison, the highest number of touches for each team (60+):Al Horford (48.2 regular season)
Blake Griffin (58.1 regular season)
Anthony Davis (39.4 regular season)
Richard Solomon (45.7 regular season)
Marc Gasol (45.8 regular season)
Josh Smith (64.7 regular season)
Atlanta: Monta Ellis (65.8)
Boston: Russell Westbrook (64.2)*
Brooklyn: Ty Lawson (61.2)
Charlotte: Kyle Lowry (84.1) with a hat tip to Reggie Jackson (61)
Chicago: Derrick Rose (66.7) and Jrue Holiday (62.8)*
Cleveland: Kyrie Irving (74.8)*
Dallas: Steph Curry (73), Lebron James (69), John Wall (67.2) - Special Note: None of these three played the entire season with the Mavericks, so there's a slight inflation here*
Denver: Monte Morris (49.7)
Detroit: Kemba Walker (72.8)*
Golden State: Bryce Cotton (72.1), Cameron Payne (68.7), Trevor Lacey (62.6)
Houston: James Harden (74.9), Zach Lavine (73.2)*
Indiana: George DePaula (62.4)
L.A. Clippers: Damian Lillard (81.7), Emmanuel Mudiay (78.3)
L.A. Lakers: Jeremy Lin (74.6), Delon Wright (63.7)*
Memphis: Patrick Beverly (61.6)
Miami: Darren Collison (63.9)*
Milwaukee: Brandon Knight (78.9), Smith
Minnesota: Goran Dragic (83), O.J. Mayo (69.5)
New Orleans: Mario Chalmers (58.2)*
New York: Chris Paul (77.4)*
Oklahoma City: Terry Rozier (80.2), James Young (65)
Orlando: Paul George (83)*
Philadelphia: Jeff Teague (82.2)
Phoenix: Eric Bledsoe (79.2), C.J. McCollum (69.1)*
Portland: Kevin Durant (86.3), Gordon Hayward (61.3)*
Sacramento: Elfrid Payton (83)*
San Antonio: Marcus Smart (78.6)
Toronto: George Hill (78.6)*
Utah: Dante Exum (79.3)*
Washington: Gary Harris (58.3)
* - denotes playoff team
As you can see, with very exceptions, this list is almost exclusively point guards. Two of the worst teams in the league - Denver and Washington - failed to have anyone meet the 60+ minimum, and New Orleans was the only playoff team lacking a 60+ touch player. Also of note - if a team has a player averaging close to 80 touches or more, if the player is one of the elite at their position, it's almost certainly a playoff squad. If the ~80 touch player isn't elite, it's a virtual lock as a lottery team.. Thus, despite the Clippers' love affair with Lillard and his career season, his league-wide perception as an overrated player appears to hold true for this season (I did not go back and look at previous seasons, which may well add another dimension to the ongoing debate over his true on-court value).
Little wonder, then, that point guard is widely discussed as the most critical component of building a team - Chicago and Detroit are both led by superstar point guards, and Toronto has George Hill, who is a persistent exception to these general rules outlined above - despite perception of being a mid-tier point guard, he was on Indiana's title team with Paul George, and helmed the Raptors' Eastern Conference Finals squad (though it must be said that PG13 was likely the touches lead on that title winner). Simply put, the Times' initial conclusion that a bad point guard is death to title hopes appears to ring true. Witness the Pelicans, with Mario Chalmers, and the Heat with Darren Collison - teams that were sexy favorites at one stage in the season, but whose poor point guards damned them to be ousted.
But this piece isn't about the guards, or how to analyze the production of touches. That's too complicated an algorithm for this initial foray. Rather, this is about big men, who are much easier to quantify due to the fewer number of categories to be concerned with, and the lower number of touches to work with.
Monte Morris - the worst team leader in touches in CSL history
Touch Generation
1. Receiving a pass
2. Rebound
3. Steal
4. Block? (I'm not certain of this, so I won't be including it in my calculations)
Now, when a player has the ball, he can do one of three things: 1) Pass, 2) Drive, or 3) Shoot. This, in conjunction with the touch generation, allows us to devise the following new metrics.
Touch-Related Metrics
1. Rebounding Touch % - Percentage of touches generated by a rebound
2. Scoring Touch % - Percentage of touches resulting in a score (Note: FTs will not be calculated in this metric)
3. Assist Touch % - Already covered under AST/TCH
4. Steal Touch % - Percentage of touches generated by a steal (Will not be tracked for bigs)
5. Turnover Touch % - Already covered under TO/TCH
6. Attempt Touch % - Percentage of touches resulting in a shooting attempt
7. Differential - Attempt Touch % - Scoring Touch %
In this first part, I'll take a look at some of the more interesting pivotal East big men:
Atlanta Hawks
Jahlil Okafor
Touches/Game Average: 29.3
Rebound Touch %: 22
Attempt Touch %: 37.6
Scoring Touch%: 17.6
Differential: 20%
Jonas Valanciunas
Touches/Game Average: 26.7
Rebound Touch %: 29.8
Attempt Touch %: 40.9
Scoring Touch% 20
Differential: 20.9%
What's interesting about these two is that though Okafor shoots 47% to Jonas V's 48.8%, the differential between Attempt % and Scoring % on Touches is higher for Jonas V by 0.9% - why that's the case, I don't know. I'm a writer, not a statistician. Okafor is the more highly regarded player in most circles, but from a scoring standpoint at least, it appears Jonas V is better - he generates more rebounds (8 to 6.5) and has a higher Scoring Touch %.
Boston Celtics
Kenneth Faried
Touches/Game Average: 27.6
Rebounding Touch%: 34.4
Attempt Touch%: 41.1
Scoring Touch%: 22.6
Differential: 18.5%
Faried is regarded as one of the best bigs in the CSL, and the numbers here appear to back that up - the highest Rebounding, Attempt, and Scoring Touch%, and, most significantly, the lowest Differential.
Charlotte Hornets
Derrick Favors
Touches/Game Average: 26.8
Rebounding Touch% 35.4
Attempt Touch %: 38.8
Scoring Touch % 18.8
Differential: 20%
Favors is another highly regarded big, with the best rebounding Touch % thus far profiled, but his Scoring % is one of the lowest despite consistently being viewed as an All-Star candidate. He had the worst scoring output of his career this season, and ranked 5th in touches on the team behind ballhog Kyle Lowry, Reggie Jackson, Andrew Wiggins, and Bradley Beal. He was in 4th on the team in scoring and his 10.4 FGA were just barely ahead of Jackson's 10.3. This suggests that letting Jackson go by declining his TO may well be addition by subtraction for the Hornets, freeing up a lot more touches and shots for Favors.
Chicago Bulls
Al Horford
Touches/Game Average: 48.2
Rebounding Touch %: 16.2
Attempt Touch %: 26.4
Scoring Touch %: 16
Differential: 10.4%
Horford has gotten a lot of press lately about being an elite big man, so what do his low %s across the board tell us? A low rebounding touch % tells us he's getting fed the ball a lot, rather than relying on rebounds to generate touches, unlike everyone else being profiled here. He also has a 6% assist touch rate, which blows everyone above him on this list out of the water and his 4.3% turnover touch rate is also vastly superior to anyone else here. That makes him a very special, unique player, as does his 10.4% Differential, which destroys everyone else. That 60.8% FG conversion rate is also tops on this list, but Faried is a 55% shooter from the floor, and yet, it's an 8.1% differential rate - almost double.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Blake Griffin
Touches/Game Average: 58.2
Rebound Touch %: 18.7
Attempt Touch %: 27.8
Scoring Touch % 16
Differential: : 11.8%
Griffin is 57.4% from the floor, but his Differential is very close to Horford's - just 1.4% off. He also has a higher Rebounding Touch% while having the same exact Scoring Touch %. Assist and Turnover Touch Rates? 5.4 and 4.2% respectively. We're starting to see a consistent theme here - the genuinely elite bigs have not lots of touches, but small Differentials, and they both protect the ball and comparatively get their teammates involved.
Detroit Pistons
Hassan Whiteside
Touches/Game Average: 18.9
Rebound Touch%: 40.7
Attempt Touch %: 37.2
Scoring Touch %: 19.7
Differential: 17.5%
What of Whiteside, the controversial top draft pick of the Detroit Pistons? Well, for one, he doesn't see the ball much, and when he does, it's because he's creating his own opportunities with rebounds, after which he almost never passes it, but rather goes up for the shot. He's 53% from the floor, yet has a better differential than the 55% Faried. Doubtless he appears he might be better than some think, though 8.3% Turnover Touch Rate and 3.9% Assist Touch Rate are along the lines of Okafor, rather than the truly elite bigs he's staring up at.
Which makes me want to skip ahead to the player he replaced:
Miami Heat
Serge Ibaka
Touches/Game Average: 31.2
Rebound Touch %: 31.7
Attempt Touch % 44.4
Scoring Touch % 22.8
Differential: 21.6%
Ibaka shoots 51.3% from the floor, yet has the worst differential of all the players on the list. 6.1% Turnover Touch Rate is good, and 3.6% Assist Touch Rate means he's not turning the ball over or generating many assists for his teammates. But one thing you know - when Ibaka has the ball in his hand, he's going up for a shot, point blank. Whether that gets through or not, who knows? But he's clearly far more impactful on the game than Whiteside due to the number of touches he has.
LaMarcus Aldridge
Touches/Game Average: 37.4
Rebound Touch %: 28.1
Attempt Touch %: 43.2
Scoring Touch % 19.8
Differential: 23.4%
You would expect the Differential to be the highest of any of these, as Aldridge shot just 45.9% from the field this season. But his aggressiveness making him the Heat's high scorer despite being third on the team in touches behind Darren Collison and Joe Jackson clearly manifested itself. Also important to note - Jackson started just 21 games, so with Collison and Aldridge both on the court and no Jackson, you knew the gameplan was to pound the ball inside to Aldridge and Ibaka, or kick it out to R.J. Hunter on the wing (32.1 touches a game).
Milwaukee Bucks
Josh Smith
Touches/Game Average: 64.7
Rebound Touch %: 9.2
Attempt Touch %: 21.6
Scoring Touch %: 10.5
Differential: 11.1%
The league leader in bigs in touches, Smith wasn't out there rebounding, wasn't demanding the ball much, and shot 48.7% from the floor, yet he has elite level differential. 4.5% and 4.8% turnover and assist touch rates respectively, which raises the question - what the fuck was Josh Smith doing with all those damn touches? Did he send them back to ballhog Brandon Knight? Did he feed them to unemployed fatass Renardo Sidney? Did he get blocked more than a friendzoned nice guy? The world may never know. He remains as enigmatic a player as ever.
Orlando Magic
DeMarcus Cousins
Touches/Game Average: 34
Rebound Touch %: 24.5
Attempt Touch %: 47.3
Scoring Touch %: 23.2
Differential: 24.1%
If you listen to the Orlando Magic, they'll tell you Cousins is the best center in the league. The metrics here don't support that at all - 49% from the floor is decent, but he has the single worst Differential, and it's not even close. There's a reason why many around the league remain skeptical of Cousins as a winning center, and the Differential clearly indicates that skepticism is well-warranted. Yes, he has the highest Scoring Touch % of anyone on this list, but remember, he's in a lineup that has Paul George and him, and nothing else, because one of the many bizarre decisions made by the coaching staff was to make Brook Lopez a 6th man (don't worry, Lopez is coming up shortly). A talented player? Yes. A playoff winning center? Absolutely not - he rode George's coattails along with the rest of the Magic. Oh, and his 2.9% Assist Touch Rate is the worst of everyone profiled.
Brook Lopez
Touches/Game Average: 28.1
Rebound Touch %: 21.4
Attempt Touch %: 38.7
Scoring Touch %: 19
Differential: 20.7%
The question has to be asked yet again - why was Lopez not a full-time starter on this squad? His FG% was the exact same as Cousins, yet his Differential blows away his teammate's. 5.7% Turnover Touch Rate and 3.5% Assist Touch Rate were both better than Cousins as well. In fact, let's dig deeper into this:
Oh wait. I can't. You know why? Because the Magic never tried Lopez and Cousins together in the starting lineup! Look, here's the thing - if you're going to pay two big men a combined
34.3 million, or half your cap, and you're already hardcore boned by the hard cap to the point where you're going to be in penalties for years, at least try playing both them in the lineup. Just try! Nothing frustrated me more than watching the inane lineup decisions run out night after night by these coaches. Realistically speaking, the Magic have to decide - who do they want? Cousins? Or Lopez? Trade the other one. The metrics here say they should have dealt Cousins and gone with Lopez. Even now, that's the path they should take - Cousins will only be 29 next year, and there's got to be some team out there that will be willing to gamble that they're the ones who can snap the streak.
Toronto Raptors
Marc Gasol
Touches/Game Average: 45.8
Rebounding Touch %: 16.4
Attempt Touch %: 19.9
Scoring Touch %: 10
Differential: 9.9%
Gasol is largely ignored in the discussion of best big men in the league, and that's clearly criminal, because his Differential is the only one profiled here there's below 10%. I'm not sure what it is that's caused him to fly under the radar so much. 51% shooter, 4.7% turnover touch rate, 5.3% assist touch rate - he gets his teammates involved, and actually is exceptional at drawing contact at the line (7.1 FTA with 73.5% conversion from the charity stripe). The Raptors have been shopping Gasol, but it appears that might be a mistake if they want to stay as a team who can challenge the elite of the East - particularly since he's a huge expiring contract next season.
Overall Synopsis
Whether any of these statistics mean anything or not is open to question. I would say that a combination of high Touches/Game Average + low Differential is perhaps the biggest takeaway for determining the elite level big men (see Horford, Griffin, Gasol, and perhaps Smith, though the last one is still an enigma as to just how good he is, due to not knowing what he does with all those touches).
The West will come another day. By the way, the Lakers have offered me a beat position, but as of yet, I'm undecided as to if I'll take it - it would mean literally going coast to coast, and the CSL is a different atmosphere from the NLL. We shall see, however.
2028
