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The Team With 16 First Round Picks

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Myles
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The Team With 16 First Round Picks

Post by Myles » Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:25 am

Trades In Review
How Miami Came to Own 16 First Round Picks in 4 Drafts

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Ben Simmons may be the best first round pick Miami has had, but he's just one of 8 in the past two years

I can't decide whether it's impressive that Miami has managed to trade for so many first round picks, or sad that so many GMs just keep giving them to him. It's honestly almost unbelievable how this has unfolded over the past 18 real-life months. Let's take a trip down memory lane and find out how Miami has found themselves in this enviable position.

Trade Deadline, 2018 (August 2016 IRL)
Yeah, we have to go this far back. Now, to be fair, at this time there were two deals made that are important for this article, but they aren't really part of Silo's first-round pick craze. Some of the picks he was acquiring around this time he used in other trades (for instance, he had the 2019 MIL 1st rounder, but traded that away to acquire Serge Ibaka). In any case, it's important to know how it all started.

Milwaukee was actually a playoff team this season, and so they decided that Kyle Lowry was the player they needed to help their playoff run (spoiler alert, he wasn't). Miami gladly sold him off, and received Joe Jackson and the 2020 MIL 1st. Then, in one of the most confusing trades I have ever seen in this league (seriously, go look at this monstrosity), Miami sent out Rudy Gay and got back the 2018 NYK 1st (Top 10 protected, this becomes important later) and the 2020 NYK 1st. DISCLAIMER: This trade was made prior to Stockton's arrival as NYK GM. This trade was made by, you can't make this shit up, "TrashCanMan."

Okay, I'm going to go on a short tangent here. This mess of a trade was clearly driven by MattyBriand as he wanted to acquire Blake Griffin. So he sends Kevin Love, filler, the 2018 NOP and 2019 NOP 1sts (the team that had JUST won the CSL Finals) to the Knicks, who sent Blake Griffin back to Indiana... okay I get that. Then, New York apparently decides that's not enough, and in a trade where they were clearly selling to Indiana, they flip-flop, and buy Rudy Gay from Miami, giving up two of their own picks to do so (they finished that season 33-49). Why not just send the NOP picks?! Or, you know, not acquire Rudy Gay?? Sigh...

Anyway, in a little over a week, Miami sent out Kyle Lowry (17.7 ppg, 6.8 apg, on 38% shooting in 32 games with Milwaukee and 2nd round exit) and Rudy Gay (21 ppg and 5 rpg for a team that finished 33-49), and received the 2020 MIL and 2020 NYK 1sts.

CSL Draft Night, 2019 (May 2017)
Karl-Anthony Towns or Kris Dunn, this was the question on everyone's mind before the draft began. Which of these talented youngsters would be the first pick of the draft? Well, this question wasn't on Miami's mind. Miami only had one pick in the 2019 draft, the 51st pick, which they used to select Jonathan Gibson, who's played all of 30 games in his CSL career. However, the real story of this draft for Miami happened on the eve of the draft, when perennial West contender Dallas came to them asking for a defensive big man. Serge Ibaka was sent to Dallas, and in exchange, Miami received the 2020 DEN 1st (traded to Dallas prior to my arrival there). This would be the 3rd 2020 1st round pick Miami stockpiled, which in addition to their own pick gave them 4 total first round picks.

Then another contender came calling, this time the New Orleans Pelicans, who were on their steady decline after winning the title a few seasons prior. They needed a point guard who wouldn't turn the ball over, and set their sights on Joe Jackson. The price for Jackson was the 2022 NOP 1st with top 20 protection.

Miami now has 4 2020 first round picks, 1 2021 first rounder, and 2 2022 first round picks.

2019-20 Regular Season (August 2017)
So now Miami has that taste of first round picks, and boy is it sweet. They want more. Luckily for them, there's a team out there that thinks Reggie Jackson is the answer at PG. A team that went 28-54 the year prior, and at the time of the trade, was sitting at 6-15. So sure, giving up their own first round pick was probably a smart decision right?

Minnesota Sends
2022 MIN 1st (Top 5 Protected)
2022 MIN 2nd

Miami Sends
Reggie Jackson (15 ppg, 1.7 A/TO ratio, 69% STOP, 44% shooting for the 23-59 Wolves)
2022 NOP 1st (Top 20 protected) - At time of trade, Pelicans were coming off a 58-24 season

Yeah... this trade didn't look good at the time and still kind of doesn't look good. Sure, the Pelicans are currently sitting at 10th in the West, but their pick being top 20 protected gives them quite the safety net, and AD is now back from injury. The Wolves pick is currently slated for the 5th pick (that protection sure looks nice then doesn't it? What's that? It's not protected anymore? sigh...).

Not much later, the OKC Thunder come calling, knowing that they need a defensive big man next to SJJ, who thinks he's a football player and comes off the court every time OKC is on defense. So they go after Gorgui Dieng, who is a fine defensive center actually. This trade isn't so bad, as OKC got lucky that Doug was bored with his team in Phoenix. OKC gave up their 2022 1st entirely unprotected for Dieng, who admittedly only played 18 games with them before being traded for Jordan McRae.

Then around the deadline, Memphis came calling, looking for defense (aren't they always?). They sent out Jamal Murray for Roy Devyn Marble and all the 2022 2nd round picks they can get. Murray isn't a pick, but he's important later. I want to say this trade was bad, but Murray was really unimpressive until getting playing time in Atlanta, and Andrei tends to prioritize fit over talent anyway. Whatever, Murray is important later, that's why I included this trade.

2020 Offseason
Miami has an insane draft as they finally are able to cash in on those picks they traded for all those paragraphs ago. They have the 1st overall pick from Milwaukee, thanks to the Kyle Lowry trade, their own pick at #2, the #8 pick from the Serge Ibaka trade, and the #16 pick from New York in the Rudy Gay trade. They select Ben Simmons (stud), Dragan Bender (yikes... Washington is very thankful for Milos), Daniel Hamilton, and Joshua Smith (looking like a very solid player).

Lesson here... don't trade future picks without protection. Looking at you Milwaukee, Ben Simmons could have been yours.

So now it's trade season for Miami (well... it's always trade season for them), and they are pick hunting. Who needs Jamal Murray and his 9.7 ppg on 44.8% eFG (yeah, effective FG%)? Oh, Minnesota, who only a few months prior traded for their PG in Reggie Jackson. This time they give up the protection on their 2022 1st, and give up their 2023 1st (Top 5 Protected... we'll see how long that lasts) to get Jamal Murray, who they manage to turn into Jakob Poeltl (solid work!). But now they are giving up their first round pick this year for sure (almost certainly going to be top 10 at the worst), and have also traded away next year's first.

Houston follows this up by sending Miami the DAL 2022 1st, and getting back four 2nd round picks. Sure, whatever. That Dallas pick is gonna be like 25th+, and Houston got like Jaron Blossomgame or Johnathan Motley or Edmond Sumner or idk some scrub from this trade, not going to try and make sense of the million trades Houston has made in the 2nd round over the past few seasons.

Oh yeah, and New Orleans sent their unprotected 2021 1st to Miami for the 2022 OKC and 2022 DAL 1sts they acquired not too long ago.

2021 Draft
Miami wins the division, and yet still has the 8th pick in the draft from New York. In case you were wondering how Miami got the 2021 NYK 1st (I was... took me forever to figure it out), here's what happened. New York had sent two picks in that Rudy Gay trade, their 2020 1st unprotected, and their 2018 1st Top 10 protected. The 2018 pick was #9, so New York kept it, but they already sent away their 2019 1st prior to the pick falling under protection. The 2020 pick was already owned by Miami (and subsequently used to draft Joshua Smith), and so the next pick NYK had to give up was their 2021 first.
Good lord this whole situation is messy and ridiculous and Miami… wtf man?

So in the 2021 draft, Miami overdrafted Semi Ojeleye at #8, overdrafted Ding Yanyuhang at #13 (courtesy of New Orleans), drafted PJ Dozier at #15 (their own pick), traded the bust formerly known as Dragan Bender and got Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk and the 2023 CLE 1st for their troubles.

2021-22 Regular Season
Honestly my brain is starting to hurt and these next few trades are too recent to review, so I'm just gonna list them.

The Indy Draymond trade debacle got Miami the 2022 TOR 1st and 2023 MEM 1st. Oh and they got Dennis Smith, the 11th pick of this most recent draft.
SAS hands them the 2022 GSW 1st on a silver platter for Hamilton.

Net Result (so far)
Basically, here's where Miami is at over the past few drafts:

2020 Draft
Pick #1 from Milwaukee - Ben Simmons (still on roster)
Pick #2 - Dragan Bender (sent to Houston for pick 18 of 2021 draft and 2023 CLE 1st)
Pick #8 from Denver via Dallas - Daniel Hamilton (just traded for 2022 GSW 1st)
Pick #16 from New York - Joshua Smith (still on roster)

2021 Draft
Pick #8 from New York - Semi Ojeleye (traded for Dennis Smith, 2022 TOR 1st, 2023 MEM 1st)
Pick #13 from New Orleans - Ding Yanyuhang (still on roster)
Pick #15 - PJ Dozier (still on roster)
Pick #18 from Houston - Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk (still on roster)

2022 Draft
MIN 1st - currently slated to be the 5th pick
GSW 1st - 15th pick
TOR 1st - 16th pick
MIA 1st - 23rd pick

2023 Draft
MIN 1st - Top 5 protected, probably will be high lottery
MEM 1st - Unprotected, who knows but most likely somewhere between 12-20
CLE 1st - Top 20 protected, unlikely to fall in protection but this Cavs aren't looking the same this year
MIA 1st - Who knows

Here's what they've given up to get all these assets

Kyle Lowry - Did okay for Milwaukee, walked in FA
Rudy Gay - Did okay for New York for a few seasons, never got out of the first round
Serge Ibaka - Quality player for Dallas for a few seasons now
Joe Jackson - Still playing for NOP, in and out of starting lineup
Reggie Jackson - lol
Gorgui Dieng - Played 18 games for OKC, turned into Jordan McRae
Roy Devyn Marble - Always seemed to be liked more by other teams than the team he's actually on
Jamal Murray - Kind of cheating to put him here as they gave up RDM to acquire Murray, but worth mentioning. MIN turned him into Jakob Poeltl
A bunch of 2nd round picks

And that's seriously it! Some of these trades that they made were products of previous trades. For example, Semi Ojeleye was only on the Heat because of the Rudy Gay trade. They gave up the 2022 DAL 1st (acquired for 2nds) and 2022 OKC 1st (acquired for Gorgui Dieng) to get the 2021 NOP 1st. Daniel Hamilton was acquired in the Serge Ibaka trade, and turned into the 2022 GSW 1st. I know that this article has gotten kind of long-winded and I'm starting to ramble, so I'll just make my point now and call it a day:

Can we please all learn our lesson and stop trading Miami 1sts?

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Re: The Team With 16 First Round Picks

Post by drumr » Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:43 am

LMFAO So Minnesota is banned from trading with Miami? Maybe N.O. and NY for good measure lol. All joking aside. Wow. His ability to talk teams into trading 1sts is impressive.
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Re: The Team With 16 First Round Picks

Post by GreenBear » Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:52 am

Very well-written article, and a lot of research must have gone into this... you should get 2 Insiders out of this.

I get that draft picks clearly aren't everyone's thing. With the scouting and methodical player development and whatnot(I personally love it but to each their own). But unless you're a legit contender looking for that edge, patience with picks is typically the smart business move. Just about anyone that's been in the CSL for a year or more will tell you how draft pick values skyrocket between the end of the season and the draft. If you want full value, that's typically the best time to move the pick. This is ESPECIALLY true if you own a lottery pick (or borderline lottery pick). There are always numerous teams looking to move up into the lottery to grab someone they fell in love with. It requires some discipline and patience, but it's usually worth it.
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Dennis
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Re: The Team With 16 First Round Picks

Post by Dennis » Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:55 am

I think we have some gms that know which 3-4 gms to target. Also they are often the firsts to trade with new GMs. Add in the ability to talk people into trading firsts and we have a receipt for stellar GMing. It's rare that a trade with GMs like Jon, Doug, bt or you is mixed into the trade history of GMs with those skills.

Somehow hurts. We have been lucky with some trades for firsts too, but we at least had to give up talent to get those from BT, Doug or OP. The players you listed are all trash but Murray and Ibaka. Even prime Gay (average at best) and prime Lowry (slightly above average) have been no gamechangers
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Re: The Team With 16 First Round Picks

Post by GreenBear » Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:58 am

drumr wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:43 am
LMFAO So Minnesota is banned from trading with Miami? Maybe N.O. and NY for good measure lol. All joking aside. Wow. His ability to talk teams into trading 1sts is impressive.
His talking certain GMs into it is only the final part of his game. He lays the groundwork in advance with the strats he uses (9 pace which inflates his players' stats) and his rating systems articles (with its mysterious formula).
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Re: The Team With 16 First Round Picks

Post by BizGilwalker » Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:11 am

That is an insane level of asset collection. Silo really is the king of giving up dogshit for high first round picks. It's kind of amazing how frequently this happens.

Anyway, Reggie Jackson is on the block.

PG: Tyus Jones / Tyler Ulis / Nigel Williams-Goss
SG: Dragan Bender / Malik Monk / Reggie Jackson
SF: Nicolas Batum / Davis Bertans / JaKarr Sampson
PF: Kevon Looney / Al-Farouq Aminu / Tony Mitchell
C: Karl-Anthony Towns / Justin Patton / Damjan Rudez

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Re: The Team With 16 First Round Picks

Post by Silogical » Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:08 am

Looks good.

The trade that got the 2nd most critizism was the Murray/Looney for a single 1st (MIN 23 1st). Looney is looking really good, Murray is looking good, and Poltl who was acquired using Murray is looking great. looney + Poltl or MIN 23 1st. Id lean towards poltl and looney if I needed depth.

The trade that got the most critism(blake/love) and deservingly so wouldnt look that impressive if the pick wasnt protected. It wouldve ended up being festus and a mid pick. Festus is near worthless. Mid picks are usually worthless once in awhile they do hit.

Id like to the history of more teams. i already knew my history but other teams even mid pack teams would interest me.

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Re: The Team With 16 First Round Picks

Post by Rizzo » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:54 am

My god that's like reading an article about when Bill Belichick trades one of his top players for multiple picks and someone puts together the web/matrix to track what the actual net return was. This is great stuff Myles and why people still continue to trade with Silo is beyond me.
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Re: The Team With 16 First Round Picks

Post by emplep7 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:39 pm

Well you can't knock him for getting what he wants and he knows the 4-5 GMs that he constantly goes to in order to get that. Its surprising as some of them are veteran GMs who keep on selling their picks low to try and win when if they kept them they would probably be out of the gutter by now.

Miami needs to find a way to win now with all of these assets otherwise it will be for nothing, but they have turned it around quickly. The Semi overdraft mistake was rectified by completely owning that trade and selling an above average player for great assets yet again.
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Re: The Team With 16 First Round Picks

Post by hardenwithnod » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:44 pm

Man, this reminds me of Danny Ainge in the NBA lol. That's pretty much what he did with the Celtics's rebuild after the Big 3 era ended. Great read, Myles. This must have took a ton of researching through those old threads, so bravo man. You deserve multiple insider scouts for this beastly article.

As others have mentioned above, you can see a pretty clear pattern of how Silo got his most valuable picks from, and that's him dealing with teams like the Wolves/Knicks that land him future 1sts, and knowing the odds of hitting gold are high on his side. Miami is loaded with young assets now, they just need to consolidate, and turn those assets into contender pieces.
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Re: The Team With 16 First Round Picks

Post by WillyJakkz » Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:17 pm

Funnel team, I funneled em Hayward Hibbert 2 1sts for Cousins
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All Time Record: '14: 12-70| '15: 17-65| '16: *46-36| '17: 61-21| '18: *41-41| '19: 48-34| '20: *30-52
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Re: The Team With 16 First Round Picks

Post by wms02a » Thu Oct 11, 2018 3:58 pm

Wow quite impressive! Isolating my deal i feel like it was a fair deal. I believe GSW will be playoff team and outside of the lottery. There are can always be an injury but you cannot bet on that
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Re: The Team With 16 First Round Picks

Post by Cleasby » Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:30 pm

Miami the smooth talking. Very clever gming in that he found a weakness in franchises and targeted them until there was nothing left. Really didn't appreciate that until I read this article.

Myles really awesome article. The effort you must have gone through to research this is insane! One of the best CSL articles I have read.
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Re: The Team With 16 First Round Picks

Post by Flaming Homer » Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:45 pm

Definitely a great article. I was always wondering how Miami got it done, to collect so many 1st. Especially since I find it quite hard to get one around here.

Cannot blame Silo for going this route, he obviously is a great sales man and is getting his point thru somehow. The math is on his side, as more picks you have, as higher the chance one goes boom like with Simmons.

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Re: The Team With 16 First Round Picks

Post by Silogical » Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:27 pm

Flaming Homer wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:45 pm
Definitely a great article. I was always wondering how Miami got it done, to collect so many 1st. Especially since I find it quite hard to get one around here.

Cannot blame Silo for going this route, he obviously is a great sales man and is getting his point thru somehow. The math is on his side, as more picks you have, as higher the chance one goes boom like with Simmons.
It was easier back then when people looked at weaker drafts to determine the value of future picks. Now people look at the 2020 and 2021 drafts and value futures accordingly. You are right the key is to just get a lot and hope some pan out. The MIL 1st that turned into Simmons was valued as a 20-25 pick for half the time I owned it. That pick for the longest time was untradeable no one wanted it. Now all futures are held to such a high standard.

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Re: The Team With 16 First Round Picks

Post by wms02a » Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:31 pm

Silogical wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:27 pm
Flaming Homer wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:45 pm
Definitely a great article. I was always wondering how Miami got it done, to collect so many 1st. Especially since I find it quite hard to get one around here.

Cannot blame Silo for going this route, he obviously is a great sales man and is getting his point thru somehow. The math is on his side, as more picks you have, as higher the chance one goes boom like with Simmons.
It was easier back then when people looked at weaker drafts to determine the value of future picks. Now people look at the 2020 and 2021 drafts and value futures accordingly. You are right the key is to just get a lot and hope some pan out. The MIL 1st that turned into Simmons was valued as a 20-25 pick for half the time I owned it. That pick for the longest time was untradeable no one wanted it. Now all futures are held to such a high standard.
Simply put, you gamble on future picks. With more the likelihood of gem is increased.... no wonder why you preferred a future pick in our deal vs the GSW pick
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Myles
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Re: The Team With 16 First Round Picks

Post by Myles » Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:34 pm

There’s no chance that’s true about the MIL pick. Sure, when you traded for it, they finished that season 46-36 and made the playoffs. But during the 2018 offseason (3 months after you traded for it, and 2 years before the pick you traded for would come to fruition) they lost Kyle Lowry and LeBron James, and subsequently went 24-58, and got the third pick in the 2019 draft. Why on earth would anyone value that MIL pick as anything other than a high lottery pick?

And then they went 11-71 the year you owned the pick. Untradeable? Hardly.

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Re: The Team With 16 First Round Picks

Post by Andrewu91 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:42 pm

"This trade isn't so bad, as OKC got lucky that Doug was bored with his team in Phoenix. OKC gave up their 2022 1st entirely unprotected for Dieng, who admittedly only played 18 games with them before being traded for Jordan McRae".

Damn, that low key shade...
Let's continue this. OKC then turned Jordan McRae into the Pacers 2020 first round pick. Then trades that pick for Klay Thompson.

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Re: The Team With 16 First Round Picks

Post by Silogical » Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:55 pm

Myles wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:34 pm
There’s no chance that’s true about the MIL pick. Sure, when you traded for it, they finished that season 46-36 and made the playoffs. But during the 2018 offseason (3 months after you traded for it, and 2 years before the pick you traded for would come to fruition) they lost Kyle Lowry and LeBron James, and subsequently went 24-58, and got the third pick in the 2019 draft. Why on earth would anyone value that MIL pick as anything other than a high lottery pick?

And then they went 11-71 the year you owned the pick. Untradeable? Hardly.
Even with Lowry gone teams still didnt value the pick. It wasnt until Lebron was traded that the pick gained value. Whether it was 1/2 1/3 1/4 of the time i owned it. The point is the pick was valued at 20-25 at some point. two GMs flat out said the pick was likely 20-25. I dont even want to talk about some of the discussions the pick was involved in. Im just greatful there are even greedier GMs than me.

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Re: The Team With 16 First Round Picks

Post by Raidercj » Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:29 pm

Honestly if I didn’t have AD or the desire to win now I would try and gain as many picks as possible.
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