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2017-18 NBA Over/Unders

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Myles
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2017-18 NBA Over/Unders

Post by Myles »

Hey all, though it would be fun if we all filled out our thoughts on how the NBA is going to stack up this year. I've put together a form with all the teams official over/unders from Vegas, and it would be cool if everyone filled it out, and we can see how right we are (or how wrong we are).

If you are unfamiliar with over/under, each team has a predicted number of wins, and you are just guessing if the team will go over that number or under. So the first team is the Atlanta Hawks at 27.5, you put over if you think they will win 28 or more games, and put under if you think they will win 27 or fewer games.

Here's the link to the form: https://goo.gl/forms/J9RwmYUixBUrOzLj1

I'll keep it live (so you can go back and edit your responses) until the first game of the seasons starts next Tuesday. After that I'll publish the results so we can see what we all think and monitor as the season goes on!

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KW
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Re: 2017-18 NBA Over/Unders

Post by KW »

Nice idea. Done.

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drumr
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Re: 2017-18 NBA Over/Unders

Post by drumr »

Noooooice
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Re: 2017-18 NBA Over/Unders

Post by Ocons »

I barely follow the NBA so don't have a clue. . . nice idea though
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Re: 2017-18 NBA Over/Unders

Post by Chilikonkarne »

done!
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Re: 2017-18 NBA Over/Unders

Post by emplep7 »

Done.
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andrei
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Re: 2017-18 NBA Over/Unders

Post by andrei »

Done. Fun :)
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Re: 2017-18 NBA Over/Unders

Post by blackice »

Done! Great idea Myles.
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Re: 2017-18 NBA Over/Unders

Post by GreenBear »

Done

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Re: 2017-18 NBA Over/Unders

Post by Rizzo »

Done.
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Re: 2017-18 NBA Over/Unders

Post by Dennis »

done
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Myles
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Re: 2017-18 NBA Over/Unders

Post by Myles »

Last call for these as the season starts in less than 24 hours!!

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Re: 2017-18 NBA Over/Unders

Post by hardenwithnod »

Warriors in 4.
Alvarado/Mitchell/Tatum/Bender/Birutis

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Myles
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Re: 2017-18 NBA Over/Unders

Post by Myles »

No longer accepting submissions, I'll post a writeup on this shortly!

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Myles
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Re: 2017-18 NBA Over/Unders

Post by Myles »

First of all, thank you to emplep7, Dennis, Andrei, BizGilwalker, Chilikonkarne, Blackice, Rizzo, Drumr, and GreenBear for participating! Got a decent turnout which gives us some pretty interesting samples to work with. On that note...
CSL 2017-18 Over/Unders
Sure Things
There were two teams that every single person agreed on, those being the Denver Nuggets at 43.5 wins, and the New York Knicks at 30.5 wins.

Every single GM picked OVER for the Nuggets, so they better win 44+ or else this will be really embarrassing.
Every single GM picked UNDER for the Knicks, so none of us think they will win more than 30 games. Kristaps is obviously a rising star, and they do have quality rotation players in Courtney Lee, Enes Kanter, and umm... well yeah that's the problem they really don't have much talent elsewhere.

70% or Higher
There were a lot of teams that most of us agreed on as well.

We went OVER on the following teams: Charlotte at 42.5, Houston at 54.5, Clippers at 42.5, Milwaukee at 46.5, OKC at 52.5, Portland at 40.5, San Antonio at 53.5, and Raptors at 47.5.

We went UNDER on the following teams: Chicago at 22.5 (ouch), Golden State at 67.5, Indiana at 30.5, Lakers at 32.5, New Orleans at 40.5, Orlando at 30.5, Philadelphia at 40.5, Sacramento at 29.5.

Almost Evenly Split
The remaining 12 teams we were almost 50/50 on.

Slight OVER: Brooklyn at 26.5, Cleveland at 54.5, Dallas at 35.5, Memphis at 38.5, Minnesota at 46.5, Phoenix at 28.5, Utah at 38.5, and Washington at 48.5.
Slight UNDER: Atlanta at 27.5, Boston at 53.5, Detroit at 38.5, and Miami at 42.5.

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Myles
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Re: 2017-18 NBA Over/Unders

Post by Myles »

So, I completely disagreed with you guys on some teams and I want to talk about them haha.

Indiana: I think this is a team that's being criminally underrated. Yes, they lost Paul George, and obviously that hurts them. But they have Myles Turner, Victor Oladipo, Thad Young, Bojan Bogdanovic, and a decent point guard combo in Darren Collison and Cory Joseph. This is also one of those franchises that always believes they need to compete hard, even when they were mediocre in the late 2000s, they still never had a high draft pick. I think they will try really hard to snag a bottom end playoff seed and that alone will propel them over 30 games.

Milwaukee: I don't really know how they get up to 47 wins after a 42 win season and then an off-season featuring... uh nothing. I get that they are counting on internal development, but the other teams that are going to be around 50 wins in the East didn't get any worse (Toronto, Washington, Boston and Cleveland), and I don't see the East having 5 teams win 47+ games.

Minnesota: Going from 31 wins to 47 or more would be a historic improvement. We all saw a jump from the Wolves last year, and it didn't come. I don't think adding Butler, Gibson, and whatever improvement Teague is over Rubio is enough to add 16 wins in one season. I think they will win 50+ next season, but this season? I'm figuring they will have a much more standard improvement and go to around 41-44 wins.

I'd love to hear everyone else's thoughts on results that surprised them, or ones that they disagree with.

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KW
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Re: 2017-18 NBA Over/Unders

Post by KW »

Myles wrote: Milwaukee: I don't really know how they get up to 47 wins after a 42 win season and then an off-season featuring... uh nothing. I get that they are counting on internal development, but the other teams that are going to be around 50 wins in the East didn't get any worse (Toronto, Washington, Boston and Cleveland), and I don't see the East having 5 teams win 47+ games.
I think the big thing here is Middleton. He missed most of the season and didn't really get to 100% when he did briefly play. Jabari Parker is a complete question mark of course. I think they overachieved to get to 42 without Middleton, and believe they're right at 45-48 wins with him. I don't remember whether I went over or under 46.5. Probably picked over but I'm not sure.

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Re: 2017-18 NBA Over/Unders

Post by GreenBear »

For Indiana, now that they've lost PG, I think they're going to look to hit the reset button. I don't doubt they have some talent on the team, but it's not going to lead them anywhere and I think they're going to trade away said talent mid-year.

As for Milwaukee, it's purely based on internal development and a weak conference. Their core is really young and should continue developing. They have the reigning rookie of the year in Brogdan. I think the Greek Freak has another gear he can go (he's still only 22). Like Kyrus mentioned, Middleton was not quite himself last year when he did play and I think he'll regain his previous form. Thon Maker is still raw, but he should improve on last year. Jabari is all gravy if he does come back and adds value.

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Myles
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Re: 2017-18 NBA Over/Unders

Post by Myles »

Teams that are definitely OVER
Chicago (22.5, 24-49)
Houston (54.5, 60-14)
Indiana (30.5, 43-31)
New Orleans (40.5, 43-31)
Philadelphia (40.5, 42-30)
Portland (40.5, 45-28)
Toronto (47.5, 54-20)
Utah (38.5, 42-32)

Teams that are definitely UNDER
Charlotte (42.5, 33-41)
Cleveland (54.5, 44-29)
Dallas (35.5, 22-51)
Golden State (67.5, 54-19)
Memphis (38.5, 19-54)
Oklahoma City (52.5, 44-31)
Phoenix (28.5, 19-55)
San Antonio (53.5, 43-31)

Teams that are undetermined
Atlanta (27.5, 21-53)
Boston (53.5, 50-23)
Brooklyn (26.5, 23-51)
Denver (43.5, 40-33)
Detroit (38.5, 33-40)
LA Clippers (42.5, 39-34)
LA Lakers (32.5, 32-40)
Miami (42.5, 39-35)
Milwaukee (46.5, 39-34)
Minnesota (46.5, 42-32)
New York (30.5, 27-47)
Orlando (30.5, 22-51)
Sacramento (29.5, 24-50)
Washington (48.5, 40-33)

Notes
  • The following teams are two wins or fewer away from finishing OVER: LA Lakers
  • The following teams are two losses or fewer away from finishing UNDER: Atlanta, Orlando, Sacramento, Washington
  • The two teams we were in unanimous agreement are still undetermined as of right now.
  • In the 70% or higher group, we were right on Houston, Portland, Toronto, and Golden State.
  • In the 70% or higher group, we were wrong on Charlotte, Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Chicago, Indiana, New Orleans, and Philadelphia.
  • We don't know yet if we are right or wrong on Clippers, Milwaukee, Lakers (not likely), Orlando (likely) and Sacramento (likely).
At the end of the regular season I'll post each person's choices and the standings among the 11 participants.

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emplep7
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Re: 2017-18 NBA Over/Unders

Post by emplep7 »

I forget how I voted, but I definitely went over for the Sixers at least. Not sure the rest, but still think this was a great idea.
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